TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,434 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes23c11,785$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.760%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4739…138cbacked Yes0c11,291$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No67c8,060$5,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.7811855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c6,604$4,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.5645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No75c6,215$4,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.6614337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed Yes27c6,195$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.928853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No77c6,010$4,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.095547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No46c5,822$2,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,143.7321035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36fb…484ebacked Yes2c4,164$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dba…10e2backed Yes2c3,861$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e3…3239backed No79c3,365$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+815.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01de…a558backed No27c2,723$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.233540%14 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…6eb9backed Yes3c2,498$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes15c2,200$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.789940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No56c2,000$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.7511425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117a…01babacked Yes12c1,829$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes29c1,400$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.972050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked Yes62c1,300$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No50c1,284$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.1936945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No76c1,120$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c1,078$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8632228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2206839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No34c992.68$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.17948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes16c988.2$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.435151%26 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes66c974.3$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.461947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ae…f0c1backed Yes75c956.87$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes45c828$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.723542.9%15 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+160.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd3e…399fbacked Yes16c625.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No79c600.01$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1267238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes56c549.99$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No59c532.25$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.998746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd32…3eabbacked Yes16c493.75$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes75c469$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.58754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed Yes69c446.3$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.484032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes25c444.09$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No51c413.43$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.95420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes62c400$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.388257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8386…c2f2backed Yes17c386.94$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.191233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b8…81a9backed Yes46c375.18$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.081060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes16c335.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.134157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No52c317.25$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5916418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.783630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe57a…e196backed Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1958442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed No32c293.12$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.073452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No38c289.86$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.754158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes16c282.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6119432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked No33c246.9$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa3…4899backed Yes47c218.18$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.551030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked No48c211.24$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.213560%21 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480b…d520backed Yes19c196.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d0…264ebacked No74c193$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.062646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No75c177.98$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0619120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b7a…ba81backed Yes27c169.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes66c163.46$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b07…9b67backed Yes67c149.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No80c136.68$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4610561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes22c114.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e41…e758backed Yes23c107.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+133.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8276…cc63backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6619040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes36c92.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb7b0…21cbbacked Yes23c92.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No74c89.61$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.635448.1%26 W · 28 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked No39c85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd393…c68ebacked Yes18c82.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa104…6930backed Yes35c81.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60eb…4a56backed Yes72c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes15c77.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.598435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes66c74.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9727536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x137c…3889backed Yes27c72.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed No78c71.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.827100%7 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…c54fbacked No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+133.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes74c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.61457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d0…87b8backed No31c57.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.95855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No75c53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.253348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked No42c51.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.691346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8914423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.54656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5449…992bbacked No58c47.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.912045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x230e…45b4backed No45c45.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed No35c39.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.192722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe936…5a10backed No54c36.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd008…fa05backed No34c33.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes33c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.959525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe5af…ec6bbacked Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes62c29.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3713738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d6…eef9backed No79c24.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf867…97cabacked Yes62c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.