AI · resolved market
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1849a3164b5d121ce386f72d3ea1580caedc239f4be2f63c9d9183dc47556b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 23c | 11,785$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…138cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,291$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 67c | 8,060$5,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.78 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 6,604$4,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,771.56 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 75c | 6,215$4,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.66 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 27c | 6,195$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.92 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 77c | 6,010$4,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.09 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 46c | 5,822$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,143.73 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fb…484ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dba…10e2backed Yes | 2c | 3,861$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed No | 79c | 3,365$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 27c | 2,723$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…6eb9backed Yes | 3c | 2,498$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 15c | 2,200$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.78 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.75 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Yes | 12c | 1,829$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,400$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,300$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 50c | 1,284$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.19 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 76c | 1,120$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 1,078$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 34c | 992.68$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.1 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 16c | 988.2$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 66c | 974.3$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…f0c1backed Yes | 75c | 956.87$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 45c | 828$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.72 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…399fbacked Yes | 16c | 625.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 79c | 600.01$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 56c | 549.99$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 532.25$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…3eabbacked Yes | 16c | 493.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 75c | 469$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 69c | 446.3$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.48 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…d068backed Yes | 25c | 444.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 51c | 413.43$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 62c | 400$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed Yes | 17c | 386.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Yes | 46c | 375.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 335.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 317.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…e196backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 32c | 293.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.07 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 38c | 289.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 282.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 33c | 246.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 47c | 218.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 48c | 211.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480b…d520backed Yes | 19c | 196.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked No | 74c | 193$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 177.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…ba81backed Yes | 27c | 169.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…fbeebacked Yes | 66c | 163.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…9b67backed Yes | 67c | 149.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 80c | 136.68$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 22c | 114.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…e758backed Yes | 23c | 107.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…cc63backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 92.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…21cbbacked Yes | 23c | 92.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 74c | 89.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 39c | 85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…c68ebacked Yes | 18c | 82.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa104…6930backed Yes | 35c | 81.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 15c | 77.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 66c | 74.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137c…3889backed Yes | 27c | 72.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed No | 78c | 71.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…c54fbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 74c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…87b8backed No | 31c | 57.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 42c | 51.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 58c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230e…45b4backed No | 45c | 45.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed No | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…5a10backed No | 54c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…fa05backed No | 34c | 33.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…ec6bbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 62c | 29.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…eef9backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf867…97cabacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?this page
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1510?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.