AI · resolved market
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90d881474a05b02d8836ce1858ab328bfd1e714eeea1f9dcac9f0d813dc2a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x390b…72b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,151$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 15c | 860.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 786.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked Yes | 48c | 632.91$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 32c | 616.8$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.35 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 80c | 537$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 79c | 445.37$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…4244backed Yes | 19c | 365$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 75c | 187.68$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 57c | 169.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 166.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 126.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a5c3backed Yes | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 30c | 83.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…0ddcbacked Yes | 29c | 69.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 19c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…3b9dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…ba8cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…4ab0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?this page
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1510?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.