AI · resolved market
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b20d3c7b173cb767de187169a9f6cb563006c34aefa2e6f29a91703f96e183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 19c | 9,174$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 25c | 3,983$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.94 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…160fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,412$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 47c | 1,216$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.06 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 58c | 1,211$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.38 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 71c | 1,100$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 984.7$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.6 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 77c | 945$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 18c | 912$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 77c | 800$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 27c | 723$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 59c | 700$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…9d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 73c | 600$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 39c | 511$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 9c | 500.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 29c | 425.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 36c | 400$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 37c | 342$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 336.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…399fbacked Yes | 14c | 318.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…ad7fbacked No | 33c | 280$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f5…3699backed Yes | 67c | 280$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 62c | 223.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 60c | 206.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 65c | 204.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 46c | 174.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…e758backed Yes | 42c | 163.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked Yes | 37c | 137.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 110.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…652bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…8efbbacked Yes | 38c | 98.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…3efdbacked No | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 32c | 72.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 56c | 66.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e7…4aebbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f6…323ebacked Yes | 34c | 54.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 70c | 50.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 45c | 40.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…35c5backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…9a97backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 30.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c45…06d0backed No | 66c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?this page
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1510?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.