TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x60a9…5a71

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
622
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT38237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 382 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.7
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,245Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,244.82
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,318Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$694.15
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,154Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,153.7
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$19.92
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,528Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+307.6%+$7,775.76
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,281.99
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,805Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,805
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$410
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.87
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.05
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$497.66
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.5
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$46.02
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,297Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+114.7%+$2,634.76
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,032.16
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,347Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+83.7%+$1,127.8
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+380.3%+$1,204.51
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.23
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.46
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$995Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$994.9
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.95
Showing 25 of 382 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT6836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 68 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will there be nine or ten announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$294.86
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$860.33
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+534.9%+$1,194.75
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,346Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,346.19
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$435.53
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+374.5%+$239.68
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+678.2%+$473.31
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+112.7%+$27.34
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$508.11
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$804Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+63.8%+$513.05
Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,316Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+112.6%+$1,482.44
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$41.7
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$33.81
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+300%+$180
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$4,529Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$4,528.53
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+53.4%+$587.84
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+75.4%+$150.88
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$883Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$883
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$76.6
Showing 25 of 68 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT5527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,758Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+226.6%+$6,249.39
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$935Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$307.35
Will another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.92
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.63
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+502.5%+$126.68
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$757.91
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.15
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,334Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,334
Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.71
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.36
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$977Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$977.49
Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.83
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$601Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$399.01
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.35
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.53
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.55
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.12
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.21
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.5
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.83
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.34
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.88
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$159.28
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,193Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$317.75
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.2
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,537Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$947.43
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.4%+$90.24
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+338.2%+$751.78
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$735Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$734.92
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+314.4%+$817.54
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.51
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$195
US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$147.83
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,411.3
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.7
Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+183.1%+$41.75
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.8
Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.9%+$73.44
Will Trump send the national guard to Seattle by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.8%+$114.33
Will Trump send the national guard to New York City by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.1%+$227.74
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+2,038.5%+$726.52
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$375.74
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$208.13
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$292.4
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,404Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+156.2%+$2,192.91
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$517.42
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,156
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,301.82
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$9,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,063.77
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11,289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,288.93
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$8,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,600.07
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$255.52
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.12
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,734Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$2,365.29
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+34%+$1,108.56
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,880Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$551.62
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,163Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,162.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$304
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.63
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.63
All 23 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,223.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,619.83
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$9,041Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+178.9%+$16,175.17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.65
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,099Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.6%+$831.79
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$413
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.2%+$44.54
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$819Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+106.6%+$873.32
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$297
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,168Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.4%+$623.98
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$334.07
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$339.52
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Russia strike on Kyiv by November 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$480.98
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$112.6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$762Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$762.02
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$225.03
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+151.8%+$544.16
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.33
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+72.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,030Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$1,797.69
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$553.85
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$5,998Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+164.2%+$9,848.44
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$125
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$85.47
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.2%+$70.35
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$324
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.99
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.98
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
All 3 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+50%+$305.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+41.5%+$140.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,358Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$680.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.