TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$391,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,316 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe557…a3f1backed Yes0c228,055$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.05911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe80e…9211backed Yes4c11,108$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.581330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes2c10,449$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.85248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c8,599$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.68983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes7c4,173$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.734434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes1c3,040$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.68150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes4c2,924$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.574316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,892$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.652781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes2c2,806$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.765612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes4c2,785$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.563938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes1c2,450$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.97922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed Yes2c2,300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes1c2,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes5c2,132$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c1,983$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.951549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes1c1,920$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d06…e90abacked Yes1c1,693$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51cf…3c6cbacked Yes2c1,665$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes8c1,664$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.723741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes1c1,587$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.333123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes2c1,560$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.464544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes4c1,554$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.66744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes2c1,554$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41355.7%2 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a91…dbb1backed Yes3c1,550$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes2c1,528$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.611010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,512$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.261,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.072042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes2c1,479$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c1,440$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.247121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c1,400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.413321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes3c1,342$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5910632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,314$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.842013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes2c1,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-79.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…954fbacked Yes3c1,227$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c1,181$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.53736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c19…94f5backed Yes4c1,167$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefb7…3647backed Yes1c1,166$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c1,153$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3860%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes1c1,145$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fa…5ca4backed Yes4c1,101$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes4c1,074$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa284…fbbabacked Yes1c1,073$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8366…4d53backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+219.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2921…2912backed Yes3c979.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b0…d788backed Yes2c975.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93b…2745backed Yes1c954.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Yes3c902.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes6c853.7$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8926641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6f…8539backed Yes5c844.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes2c842.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c790.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.425119.6%10 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes9c769.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4c7…fb3abacked Yes3c769.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes3c728.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.712222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf134…9314backed Yes10c727.5$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2db…9070backed Yes4c726.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes4c720$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.271729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed Yes3c695.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a2…838bbacked Yes4c692.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.92911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-83.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79d1…ed0fbacked Yes7c676.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4780%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes4c642.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c637.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58390%0 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes4c635.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.562920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4684…6054backed Yes3c571.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes2c568.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992a…01adbacked Yes2c564.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.37812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed Yes13c524$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.121464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7061…7960backed Yes3c519.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd30…6cb2backed Yes3c510.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802e…e4a8backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes4c490.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes10c483$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1413040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…a1c6backed Yes3c471.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes2c445.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032a…1cf8backed Yes3c441.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed Yes5c432.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17dc…aff8backed Yes4c419.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes11c419.11$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes10c412$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.270%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9977…2b6cbacked Yes8c409.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes4c406.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.962128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes9c395$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.555750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x686e…9dc3backed Yes4c389.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3b…965cbacked Yes4c384.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes3c380$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76410%0 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes4c360.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes4c328.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.123756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes12c305.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.037136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60a…b45ebacked Yes4c305.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes11c289$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.792171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+90.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xddde…2e88backed Yes4c279.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fc…cceebacked Yes4c263.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c261.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.76746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes10c260.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.183420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes8c260$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c238.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes17c236.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed Yes13c231$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.031656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.