Movies · resolved market
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d52e596669a5e49b6b479b01a2a77c0657cc61219298e322faafe5a5d4c7df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe557…a3f1backed Yes | 0c | 228,055$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80e…9211backed Yes | 4c | 11,108$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 2c | 10,449$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 8,599$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 7c | 4,173$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.73 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 1c | 3,040$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 2,924$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,892$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,806$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,785$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…4ef4backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,132$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 1,983$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,920$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…e90abacked Yes | 1c | 1,693$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…3c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,665$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 8c | 1,664$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,587$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,560$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 4c | 1,554$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,554$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…dbb1backed Yes | 3c | 1,550$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,528$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,479$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 1,342$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,314$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…954fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,227$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,181$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c19…94f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,167$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 1c | 1,166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,153$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…1c80backed Yes | 1c | 1,145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 1,101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 4c | 1,074$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,073$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…4d53backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +219.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…2912backed Yes | 3c | 979.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b0…d788backed Yes | 2c | 975.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…2745backed Yes | 1c | 954.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 3c | 902.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 853.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…8539backed Yes | 5c | 844.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 2c | 842.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 790.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 769.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…fb3abacked Yes | 3c | 769.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 3c | 728.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…9314backed Yes | 10c | 727.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…9070backed Yes | 4c | 726.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 4c | 720$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed Yes | 3c | 695.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a2…838bbacked Yes | 4c | 692.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…ed0fbacked Yes | 7c | 676.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 4c | 642.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 637.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 4c | 635.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4684…6054backed Yes | 3c | 571.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 2c | 568.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992a…01adbacked Yes | 2c | 564.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 4c | 555$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 13c | 524$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…7960backed Yes | 3c | 519.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…6cb2backed Yes | 3c | 510.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…e4a8backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 4c | 490.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 10c | 483$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…a1c6backed Yes | 3c | 471.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 2c | 445.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…1cf8backed Yes | 3c | 441.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Yes | 5c | 432.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…aff8backed Yes | 4c | 419.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 11c | 419.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 10c | 412$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…2b6cbacked Yes | 8c | 409.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 4c | 406.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 9c | 395$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…9dc3backed Yes | 4c | 389.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3b…965cbacked Yes | 4c | 384.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 3c | 380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 4c | 360.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 4c | 328.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 12c | 305.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…b45ebacked Yes | 4c | 305.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 11c | 289$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…2e88backed Yes | 4c | 279.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…cceebacked Yes | 4c | 263.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 261.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 10c | 260.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 238.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 17c | 236.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 13c | 231$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chase Infiniti win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emily Blunt win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Glenn Close win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Gwyneth Paltrow win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lopez win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mari Yamamoto win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Odessa A'zion win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rebecca Ferguson win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.