TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$690,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $690,772 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e7d…c0c1backed Yes23c109,400$25,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,178.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…b43ebacked Yes23c73,050$16,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,737.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc3…10e1backed No77c27,900$21,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,556.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b41…7221backed No78c27,900$21,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,026.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d3…17bdbacked No77c27,100$20,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,368.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698a…f8bcbacked No77c26,500$20,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,227.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a20…aab2backed No77c22,350$17,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,095.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…104dbacked No77c22,300$17,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,084.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb609…11e5backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…6509backed No77c19,999$15,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Yes18c10,406$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc8…7586backed No77c8,400$6,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…54c1backed Yes1c7,590$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes13c7,275$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.35612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6703…c123backed Yes2c7,120$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ab…5002backed Yes2c7,120$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508a…b3f8backed Yes1c7,100$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0d…fda2backed Yes1c7,085$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292b…7950backed Yes1c7,050$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes17c6,052$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.93983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes14c4,617$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.4617821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,952$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.141,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes21c2,822$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.462152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes19c2,686$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5105219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes4c2,567$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.024434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked Yes4c2,280$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No77c2,231$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.392441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes14c2,095$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.823741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a00…c3cbbacked Yes3c1,761$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes13c1,712$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.832924%79 W · 250 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes11c1,528$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3818344.3%81 W · 102 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes16c1,510$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.38248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes1c1,458$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.312536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes9c1,437$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba5c…1110backed Yes3c1,366$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick21cpaid+184.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No78c1,328$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2892927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes22c1,248$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.291637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes4c1,227$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50248.3%2 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes22c1,227$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.691127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes23c1,211$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes19c1,198$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.110632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes23c1,192$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.161540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes16c1,178$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.553923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes18c1,141$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.881625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes14c1,109$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.064316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abc…ba49backed Yes18c1,081$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes19c1,069$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes2c1,068$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.325523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes17c1,006$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.225414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes20c1,003$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2513321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes18c976.41$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes2c939.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes23c928.48$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.599238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c891.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.561549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked No80c889.99$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No77c889.63$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.311136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes24c820.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes20c801.69$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1641030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5eb…c16cbacked Yes18c799.62$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes17c798$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.225135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes21c758.54$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.171435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed Yes4c750$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.081827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes2c729$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.813040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes3c725$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes17c702.1$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed Yes20c664.03$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes3c626.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.817839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes4c625$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9186…9220backed Yes24c613.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c613$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+239.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes21c611.48$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.521435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No77c603.76$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.531553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes20c597$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.477136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes19c577.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes4c568.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.961947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes14c567$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7729926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes4c566.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-88.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e9f…8d7ebacked Yes24c566$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa6…2c95backed Yes18c555.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0a…0681backed Yes18c555.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d91…186ebacked Yes18c548.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes17c547.23$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.94930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f04…3cdebacked No76c542$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes3c534.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+148.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c520.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…59d0backed Yes22c507.05$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f5…eb92backed Yes20c502.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154918.4%9 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes20c499.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.54247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No78c494.59$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.82040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c493.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes20c461.13$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.521637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713c…41bbbacked Yes21c450.09$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.921233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f8…8c04backed Yes11c440$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+119%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c433.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad6…781fbacked Yes23c431$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes9c419.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9837…c970backed Yes25c401.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.