Movies · resolved market
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086c5cafecb5a4cf4e3a4f75c502e0887d704f62d27ec4523caa693ba158fdfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $690,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $690,772 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e7d…c0c1backed Yes | 23c | 109,400$25,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,178.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…b43ebacked Yes | 23c | 73,050$16,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,737.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…10e1backed No | 77c | 27,900$21,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,556.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…7221backed No | 78c | 27,900$21,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,026.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…17bdbacked No | 77c | 27,100$20,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,368.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…f8bcbacked No | 77c | 26,500$20,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,227.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…aab2backed No | 77c | 22,350$17,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,095.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…104dbacked No | 77c | 22,300$17,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,084.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…11e5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…6509backed No | 77c | 19,999$15,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Yes | 18c | 10,406$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc8…7586backed No | 77c | 8,400$6,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…54c1backed Yes | 1c | 7,590$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,275$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.3 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6703…c123backed Yes | 2c | 7,120$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…5002backed Yes | 2c | 7,120$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508a…b3f8backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…fda2backed Yes | 1c | 7,085$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…7950backed Yes | 1c | 7,050$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 17c | 6,052$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.93 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 14c | 4,617$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.46 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,952$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 21c | 2,822$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,686$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 4c | 2,567$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked Yes | 4c | 2,280$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 77c | 2,231$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.39 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 14c | 2,095$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.8 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…c3cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,761$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 13c | 1,712$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 1,528$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 16c | 1,510$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,458$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,437$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…1110backed Yes | 3c | 1,366$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 21cpaid | +184.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 78c | 1,328$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 22c | 1,248$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 4c | 1,227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes | 22c | 1,227$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 23c | 1,211$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 1,198$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,192$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 16c | 1,178$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Yes | 18c | 1,141$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 1,109$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…ba49backed Yes | 18c | 1,081$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 1,069$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.82 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 2c | 1,068$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 17c | 1,006$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,003$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 18c | 976.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes | 2c | 939.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 23c | 928.48$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.59 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 891.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked No | 80c | 889.99$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 77c | 889.63$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 24c | 820.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 20c | 801.69$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…c16cbacked Yes | 18c | 799.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 17c | 798$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.22 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 21c | 758.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 4c | 750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 2c | 729$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 3c | 725$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 17c | 702.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed Yes | 20c | 664.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 3c | 626.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 24c | 613.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 613$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +239.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 21c | 611.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 77c | 603.76$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 20c | 597$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 19c | 577.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 4c | 568.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 567$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 4c | 566.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…8d7ebacked Yes | 24c | 566$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2c95backed Yes | 18c | 555.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…0681backed Yes | 18c | 555.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…186ebacked Yes | 18c | 548.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 17c | 547.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…3cdebacked No | 76c | 542$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 3c | 534.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 520.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…59d0backed Yes | 22c | 507.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Yes | 20c | 502.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 20c | 499.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 78c | 494.59$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 493.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 20c | 461.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked Yes | 21c | 450.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed Yes | 11c | 440$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +119%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 433.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…781fbacked Yes | 23c | 431$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 9c | 419.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…c970backed Yes | 25c | 401.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chase Infiniti win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emily Blunt win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Glenn Close win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Gwyneth Paltrow win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lopez win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mari Yamamoto win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Odessa A'zion win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rebecca Ferguson win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.