Movies · resolved market
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56b65d978c8bd65b4d24a0d093929ab23711816d039d7a3ceac5b7280b61564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,141 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9b7…ebe9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…6faebacked Yes | 0c | 7,738$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…7c4dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,681$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 7,271$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.68 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…e1a1backed Yes | 2c | 7,145$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bf…fa89backed Yes | 2c | 7,130$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,347$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,766$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 3,522$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,891$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,640$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,466$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,273$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 2,222$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,083$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0eb…e62dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 1,560$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,472$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 1c | 1,453$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…8422backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f0…9f5bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,403$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,329$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…bc37backed Yes | 2c | 1,239$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 1c | 1,217$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…b111backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 2c | 914.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…5ef3backed Yes | 1c | 908.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes | 1c | 891$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 3c | 829.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 5c | 824.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 794.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…3700backed Yes | 2c | 767.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 7c | 737.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…3c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 701.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 660$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 2c | 528.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 208.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chase Infiniti win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emily Blunt win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Glenn Close win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Gwyneth Paltrow win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lopez win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mari Yamamoto win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Odessa A'zion win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rebecca Ferguson win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.