TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$702,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,727 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 761 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes52c13,633$7,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,490.13043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe557…a3f1backed No45c13,622$6,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,191.18911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc913…5966backed Yes20c11,700$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,309.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+389.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No51c11,699$5,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,965.462937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e23…1d79backed Yes21c10,200$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,091.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+383.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes55c10,174$5,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,616.9917751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x217f…1bbfbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0811…bb04backed Yes27c10,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick27cpaid+277.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3126…4ff7backed No62c8,430$5,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,261.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x989d…f246backed Yes60c8,232$4,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No47c8,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5a…33eebacked No62c7,830$4,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,893.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f8…3bb4backed No62c7,810$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,877.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes61c7,492$4,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,886.975612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Yes61c7,360$4,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab53…df58backed Yes38c7,100$2,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,380.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes14c6,922$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,935.1923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes22c6,753$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,275.484434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No70c6,077$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,257.0748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes11c6,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3401127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+124.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes50c5,881$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.141936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes55c5,679$3,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.072857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes33c5,626$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,743.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…702dbacked Yes51c5,611$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-83.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes62c4,806$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Yes54c4,269$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked Yes50c4,063$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No44c4,000$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.981315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa992…8f7ebacked No74c3,800$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7e…4e04backed No62c3,650$2,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x148c…1ddebacked No80c3,620$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked Yes56c3,603$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3855…4a80backed No79c3,500$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6545…03c5backed No62c3,450$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1708…2355backed No80c3,330$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9c4…ac9dbacked No74c3,200$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f2…e3efbacked No79c3,200$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b8…858abacked Yes50c3,112$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…3577backed No80c3,080$2,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes52c3,013$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.143125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71aa…2169backed No74c3,000$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Yes49c2,990$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03a0…e52abacked Yes55c2,958$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No49c2,955$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.112626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee37…89febacked Yes16c2,794$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.931040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b9…175bbacked No80c2,770$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes49c2,748$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.241968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce12…0e76backed No60c2,735$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No7c2,648$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.74983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Yes49c2,522$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ea…f348backed Yes49c2,449$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes52c2,448$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.351637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad2…c9ebbacked No80c2,400$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No74c2,331$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.362236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes50c2,248$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a2…811fbacked No63c2,240$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes48c2,236$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.94425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ba…b283backed No53c2,228$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef5…83cbbacked Yes39c2,208$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa455…3ef0backed Yes48c2,140$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes52c2,122$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.687136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e9…a961backed No63c2,100$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No78c2,073$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.722548%12 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfaa…c089backed Yes55c2,026$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.59742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No47c2,004$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de2…feabbacked Yes7c1,967$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+79.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No50c1,942$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.914827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed No48c1,881$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Yes54c1,845$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No41c1,792$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+88.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes14c1,729$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.7450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eeb…0ca9backed Yes59c1,702$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-75.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3496…69e1backed No76c1,677$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No49c1,595$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.094316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes28c1,514$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.22611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cad…e61ebacked No61c1,510$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes43c1,506$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.094544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes13c1,500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3051723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked No50c1,484$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No48c1,483$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.057448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes45c1,450$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.552222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No6c1,440$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.282944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Yes48c1,435$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No63c1,427$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.1310244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c1,394$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.7267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes29c1,385$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.15414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes40c1,352$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.981050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,335$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.391,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes36c1,329$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.511457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes79c1,322$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes56c1,255$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.965244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes41c1,220$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.521540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c1,217$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.831549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342d…f660backed No63c1,210$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea8…43dabacked No63c1,150$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes44c1,137$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.491346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed No51c1,123$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes25c1,120$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.7110632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4feb…446bbacked No63c1,120$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.