TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee3b…657c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
130
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT3834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.1
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.25
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$110
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+60.8%+$189.1
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$10.43
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,614Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+78.1%+$1,260.31
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.41
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$899Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$899.38
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.14
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$463.51
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.5
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.25
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$48.58
US strikes Iraq by March 31backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+51.5%+$85
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+33.5%+$35.55
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+57.9%+$73.54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+488.2%+$124.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$357.87
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40.37
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$23.73
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+30.1%+$23.92
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78.32
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$111
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+965.1%+$2,409.65
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$102
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$139
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$153.19
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1625%4 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+32.7%+$85.34
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+44.9%+$15.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+541%+$135.24
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$14.63
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$295.22
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+66.5%+$400.96
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.43
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,818Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,818.48
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.03
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.42
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$69.43
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.12
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,197Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+175.5%+$2,099.74
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,151Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$362.9
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.21
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$20.26
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.16
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+141.3%+$714.52
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+95.6%+$25.68
Will between 5 and 8 participants make a final pair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$220.68
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.76
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.65
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+108.8%+$248.3
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$29.55
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$47.7
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+156.4%+$24.4
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$329.19
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$164.73
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$200.8
Will Silver (SI) settle at $82.5-$85 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$16.45
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$72.5 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$10.16
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+70.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+293.8%+$1,101.3
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+272%+$108.79
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$598Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$408.12
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+36.9%+$221.92
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+26.7%+$93.75
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$117.55
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$881Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$881.3
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.45
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+51.5%+$14.17
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$109.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LNG Esports vs Ultra Prime (BO3)backed Ultra Prime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.