TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,065,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,189,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,065,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 419 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7277…ab80backed Yes15c137,731$20,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,072.511338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc42c…ed82backed Yes3c31,666$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8972…c3d5backed Yes10c20,849$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes1c20,750$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.15684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab6b…95a2backed Yes2c17,618$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes2c17,024$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.37310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c14,131$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.152324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked Yes4c13,715$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.293225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c10,300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.42934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes3c10,209$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.374330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes7c9,428$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.865315.1%8 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No16c7,692$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,479.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Yes13c6,699$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+232.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c6,635$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.52664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes5c6,573$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.25296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x277c…b537backed Yes0c6,090$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c6,035$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.78590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes10c5,715$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.2229747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No19c5,610$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,522.930238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes6c5,470$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.545915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f95…61bbbacked Yes2c5,393$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…bebdbacked Yes2c5,031$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed No72c4,456$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.984050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes23c4,207$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.11425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8456…38bbbacked Yes2c4,185$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc244…caf6backed Yes28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b21…99f2backed Yes21c4,000$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x595e…19bfbacked No78c4,000$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43af…12bbbacked No70c4,000$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No51c3,829$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.697150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No74c3,395$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.351580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4578…7614backed Yes19c3,150$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee0b…f049backed Yes18c3,022$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.26616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No77c3,017$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ad…77cdbacked Yes14c2,985$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed No23c2,900$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.81637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes5c2,893$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.323122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9332…0f89backed No74c2,873$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,853$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.381,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ab…6943backed Yes8c2,839$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes4c2,833$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.891010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No77c2,821$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.191526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab20…5c57backed Yes11c2,692$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28360%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c2,657$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.843023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+261.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes9c2,640$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.61185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes2c2,508$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.89580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f3…c8d5backed No66c2,500$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc09c…672dbacked Yes21c2,500$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes2c2,491$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes21c2,441$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.111520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c2,423$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0226413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f8…32b5backed Yes2c2,356$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes4c2,338$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9532023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…1b8dbacked Yes22c2,300$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…eecfbacked No72c2,300$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes22c2,280$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.681216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7fa…cc76backed No71c2,200$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes79c2,100$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick54cpaid-76.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdefb…bd88backed Yes2c2,098$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.871513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes10c2,077$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.925343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes3c2,073$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No63c2,037$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.261291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+50.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd18…b4d5backed Yes10c2,001$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf96a…683ebacked Yes3c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No79c2,000$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4181580%12 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No61c1,902$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.694643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes6c1,889$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.69130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ec…ab04backed Yes22c1,867$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d71…241dbacked No71c1,800$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes29c1,775$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.114425%11 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No78c1,722$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3913858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6484…9aebbacked Yes22c1,700$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9d…3327backed No72c1,700$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes12c1,637$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2921015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes11c1,526$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16610551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d71…dec2backed Yes2c1,506$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d7…526ebacked Yes21c1,500$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed No69c1,499$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.5925661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes33c1,450$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.454233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes15c1,447$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.29038.9%35 W · 55 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30c1…35eabacked Yes3c1,439$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f3…bbbebacked Yes2c1,409$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No21c1,337$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.334542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No63c1,294$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.824856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c7…cabebacked Yes16c1,257$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.83130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes17c1,224$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.6611615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb34…a1cdbacked No76c1,189$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.041656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0492…f3f1backed Yes10c1,157$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4566…f265backed Yes2c1,151$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-44.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,145$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3948…8700backed Yes4c1,115$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.021513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked Yes3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302334.8%8 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93a6…42babacked Yes59c1,100$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa596…8d92backed Yes11c1,096$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b8…fec9backed Yes9c1,093$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…b3c9backed No66c1,087$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.15887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick60cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c0c…c312backed Yes1c1,079$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4df…6a6fbacked Yes5c1,059$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.