Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4c7c43f9ae7be575cf0fe4d7fd83569d9de5a5505fcefa9c0be4d081632a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 0c | 7,078$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,810$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0be…944ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,861$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacc…f879backed Yes | 1c | 4,735$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,634$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 5c | 4,215$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,605$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 5c | 3,492$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…bc56backed Yes | 0c | 2,968$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…5685backed Yes | 15c | 2,209$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,161$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 10c | 2,103$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,816$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…2825backed Yes | 1c | 1,769$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,484$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…a2ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,426$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,319$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,209$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,189$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…6253backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…ecd9backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…9a81backed Yes | 2c | 999$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 14c | 954.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 936.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…36b3backed Yes | 11c | 905.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked Yes | 8c | 884.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 857.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…35eabacked Yes | 5c | 739.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…4884backed Yes | 4c | 703.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…c1aebacked Yes | 15c | 670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…b077backed Yes | 2c | 664.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 618.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 15c | 605.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 2c | 592.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 522$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…1919backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e051backed Yes | 21c | 483.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 456.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 447.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb29d…343abacked Yes | 8c | 415.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 16c | 411.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…14fabacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…d17fbacked Yes | 18c | 327.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…8f12backed Yes | 5c | 283.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed Yes | 10c | 270.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd606…2b27backed Yes | 22c | 232.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 147$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 80c | 121.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 55cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…b864backed Yes | 15c | 116.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 79c | 109.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 20c | 101.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…58dcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…ee66backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $95 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.