Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0c417b3e8b9dbb9e8b5c6862c30cd925b0bf2edbf2a50963d900dd72e87d15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27af…2127backed Yes | 1c | 19,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed Yes | 1c | 19,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…55f1backed Yes | 1c | 19,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 16,391$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.02 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 14,367$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…8996backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…f6aabacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 2c | 5,496$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,885$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 2c | 2,493$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,402$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Yes | 2c | 2,109$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…182bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,063$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 1c | 1,959$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,498$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed Yes | 1c | 1,232$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 31cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,219$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…a23abacked Yes | 1c | 1,054$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 1,042$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…613cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,023$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 936.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 2c | 483.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $95 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.