Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02aa63fd76abe5eb0a7c72cd5dd7e7498e170f1fc87671193400930170d7502c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,081,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,482,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,081,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 1c | 52,731$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.38 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…5685backed Yes | 4c | 29,613$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 2c | 20,853$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…ab43backed Yes | 0c | 13,653$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…2ac5backed Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…e35bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…b077backed Yes | 1c | 12,601$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…17afbacked Yes | 0c | 12,333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…2825backed Yes | 1c | 12,298$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f6…3de1backed Yes | 0c | 11,697$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…f2e4backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…94d7backed Yes | 0c | 10,667$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8960backed Yes | 0c | 10,333$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…2af2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…169fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,511$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,159$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 8,472$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…d420backed Yes | 1c | 7,679$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed6…a669backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…a8c4backed Yes | 0c | 6,604$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 6,490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 0c | 6,444$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…2eacbacked Yes | 2c | 6,198$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 6,140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,760$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 5,482$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…b4d5backed Yes | 2c | 5,172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…81eabacked Yes | 1c | 5,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 1c | 4,637$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,266$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…86a3backed Yes | 1c | 3,907$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 3,795$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,615$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…4884backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,232$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cf…5cd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,009$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,521$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,375$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…1b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…4b26backed Yes | 2c | 2,270$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…7614backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…4fa3backed Yes | 2c | 2,102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…24d4backed Yes | 0c | 2,045$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 1c | 1,855$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,485$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…d17fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,401$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 3c | 1,341$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 1,161$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…1314backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…3203backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…a6fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 7c | 659.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…bcf2backed Yes | 3c | 573.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae1…9e37backed Yes | 4c | 456.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 403.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 7c | 329.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…50bfbacked Yes | 5c | 327.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1449…1ff3backed Yes | 5c | 317.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbca…f90abacked Yes | 21c | 111.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $95 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.