TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5576…622f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Movies, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Movies at 50 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP reach $1.40 June 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.59
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.01
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.46
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.41
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.34
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.14
Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 5-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$76.64
Will Solana reach $310 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.95
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.28
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.16
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$87.26
Will XRP reach $2.40 December 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$51.82
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$28.83
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$89.18
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$23.48
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$19.13
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.46
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30.76
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$42.18
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22.91
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+316.7%+$38
Giants vs. Lionsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$12.3
Dolphins vs. Brownsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Bengals vs. Packersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.8
Cardinals vs. Coltsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Broncos vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be orange?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be blue?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$230
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be purple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$98
No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$54
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$39.02
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18.1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18.52
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.17
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.25
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.88
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.45
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$68.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palantir reach $264 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$17.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.