TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,574,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,119,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,574,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd57…694dbacked Yes1c10,051,671$83,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,267.3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c7,925,449$65,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,439.33352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes1c3,960,834$31,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,110.251520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5585…b166backed Yes1c3,188,874$24,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,988.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…56a3backed Yes1c2,060,672$23,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,859.35120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Yes2c1,977,203$32,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,999.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes1c1,945,225$10,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,843.7150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…d8eabacked Yes1c1,618,882$13,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,553.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes2c1,500,000$22,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,666.071010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c1,397,056$9,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,032.32195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes2c1,353,628$20,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,533.33119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2782…8b22backed Yes0c1,337,856$6,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,139.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b4…3b36backed Yes1c1,296,018$7,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,818.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes1c1,293,374$7,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,967.82156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Yes1c1,191,000$12,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,98130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82a…5de9backed Yes1c1,030,519$7,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,243.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67b…e0e7backed Yes1c1,028,473$9,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,387.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes2c968,794$16,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,506.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde92…5e10backed Yes1c952,323$6,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,340.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf107…6d03backed Yes0c942,571$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,577.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3db…43bbbacked Yes0c938,280$3,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,753.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668b…346cbacked Yes1c885,122$4,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,968.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes1c861,086$11,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,278.83130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…9188backed Yes2c848,437$18,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,244.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6169backed Yes1c758,792$10,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,128.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes0c717,532$3,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,253.59616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ac…0fd4backed Yes1c711,818$4,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3729…6e11backed Yes1c670,282$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,016.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes0c665,474$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.76120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cf…10e4backed Yes2c648,671$13,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,859.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes1c609,247$5,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,434.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-88.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a0…8b0fbacked Yes1c601,728$4,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,264.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Yes1c586,938$6,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,044.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes1c564,997$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.981216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes2c558,004$12,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,289.491258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe879…7081backed Yes1c551,512$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d0…2882backed Yes1c544,643$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c05…0205backed Yes1c537,968$3,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf70b…17a6backed Yes1c537,786$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,559.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes1c526,233$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.4150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad1…6612backed Yes1c474,735$2,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb91…a850backed Yes0c431,992$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c408,650$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.5310420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked Yes1c395,716$4,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,424.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Yes1c395,000$4,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,74020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a2…fbdebacked Yes1c388,482$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef55…1a6bbacked Yes2c384,361$7,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,996.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb4…9383backed Yes1c318,515$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…4511backed Yes2c310,135$6,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,610.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5d…1ccbbacked Yes0c299,848$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04e…8c31backed Yes1c291,640$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Yes2c269,436$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,842.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8029…ad50backed Yes1c265,557$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb736…9118backed Yes0c256,009$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked Yes1c253,666$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441d…4d70backed Yes1c253,415$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…1824backed Yes1c252,294$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.47120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed Yes1c250,049$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee0…146bbacked Yes0c248,630$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731a…04bdbacked Yes2c244,790$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b6f1backed Yes1c244,364$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4758…0b34backed Yes1c235,817$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,53520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18e…3535backed Yes2c231,942$5,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,690.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes1c229,175$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Yes1c228,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Yes0c225,104$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…ca56backed Yes1c221,499$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.0730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes1c220,782$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Yes1c220,046$3,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.14850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc227…b18abacked Yes0c218,788$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b35…97edbacked Yes1c218,042$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa29c…1e65backed Yes2c216,903$4,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,527.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9b…9bf1backed Yes1c216,370$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes1c215,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4801118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba6…fd3bbacked Yes1c208,151$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.9850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23c…5689backed Yes2c205,587$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes1c202,277$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…6a98backed Yes1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Yes1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafbc…e79dbacked Yes1c199,280$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9d…c685backed Yes1c196,250$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…b7bfbacked Yes1c195,180$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes1c188,800$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes1c181,260$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.4470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c172,667$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1487…9c9cbacked Yes1c172,272$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5542…a7e7backed Yes2c168,941$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e08…c102backed Yes1c166,452$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb5…4e68backed Yes2c166,359$2,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,994.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2899…3f61backed Yes0c165,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c160,294$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.628924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes2c160,214$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.21320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes0c160,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes2c152,645$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.36150%0 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf498…3bcbbacked Yes1c151,163$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x660a…3e86backed Yes0c150,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Yes2c148,792$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d40…76c3backed Yes1c148,123$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.9580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b2…c1bebacked Yes2c146,964$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,529.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079a…8fbabacked Yes2c144,216$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.