TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,523,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,426,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,523,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,049 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc658…b784backed Yes35c1,557,474$544,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544,748.271346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes13c1,474,929$198,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198,309.42321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fc…7a6fbacked Yes11c889,701$101,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,313.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5587…42dabacked Yes26c875,427$231,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,869.431127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes13c715,679$89,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,694.85303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes3c709,793$20,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,584.011010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes25c548,121$135,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135,257.92725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed Yes39c519,646$201,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,110.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes6c513,583$30,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,815333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…2ca4backed Yes0c499,000$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7428…78b0backed Yes3c469,452$13,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,395.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Yes6c425,174$26,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,958.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…6b20backed Yes5c400,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes45c366,960$163,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,301666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0573…5f76backed Yes34c301,437$101,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,620250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5d…3c28backed Yes11c294,188$32,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,88120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes11c278,002$31,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,079.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes0c277,000$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes58c271,174$156,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,854.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes19c246,969$46,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,534.3580%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe639…082abacked Yes16c241,511$39,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,042.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef32…d459backed Yes4c235,705$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes28c224,713$63,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,938.442213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Yes28c213,700$59,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,629.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes52c202,327$105,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,069.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbc…e79dbacked Yes3c201,601$6,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,238.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes5c200,141$9,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,207.176421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes5c200,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce1…5f85backed Yes7c199,158$14,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,598.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes35c187,382$65,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,954.883423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes31c182,155$56,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,468.19911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes31c181,199$55,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,543.534820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Yes28c175,392$48,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,650.14757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be4…b795backed Yes8c170,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes9c169,742$14,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,678.191625%4 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes28c161,955$44,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,580.762015%3 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…51f0backed Yes3c159,519$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes31c158,958$49,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,277.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes6c152,823$8,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,640.58130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Yes55c133,429$73,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,418.32366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes4c131,350$5,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,205.1156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a2…f1edbacked Yes3c131,295$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,04020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes51c130,575$66,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,162.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes21c129,000$27,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,090250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes26c125,835$32,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,587.021250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes54c123,088$66,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,884.412231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4340…64c4backed Yes50c118,984$59,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,901.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d6…cf02backed Yes1c117,460$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b7…962ebacked Yes3c113,288$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Yes11c113,276$12,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,775.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes36c111,445$40,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,038.98825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-62.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes18c110,169$19,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,455.15131.4%16 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd586…08e9backed Yes24c109,824$26,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,608.6290%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes47c109,178$51,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,477.8911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes46c104,525$48,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,492.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed No49c103,586$50,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,828.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4796…7abdbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes34c98,921$34,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,044.81258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes14c98,000$13,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,569.992123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…441fbacked Yes3c96,436$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes66c95,343$63,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,334.621266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…d8eabacked Yes3c91,418$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,47020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes51c89,706$46,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,135.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes5c86,915$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,774.961921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes54c86,815$46,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,595.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Yes6c83,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ff…81b3backed Yes2c80,463$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes7c80,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes8c80,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed No38c79,158$30,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,746.56119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes3c76,568$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa68f…5f55backed Yes19c76,460$14,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,685.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes65c76,000$49,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,577.961631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes6c75,000$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,750520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes34c73,653$24,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,907.112544%11 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked Yes32c73,612$23,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,511.18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…9d3bbacked Yes43c72,901$31,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,426.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes4c72,720$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.691050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Yes29c70,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75e…a99cbacked Yes4c69,982$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Yes5c69,420$3,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,47130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebd2…d1d6backed Yes2c69,332$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa402…1453backed Yes3c67,934$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ca…56b9backed Yes4c66,062$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked No76c65,782$49,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,961.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…6a98backed Yes7c65,217$4,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,565.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes7c65,000$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,550911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979d…189bbacked Yes34c64,006$21,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,789.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…1824backed Yes3c63,627$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.03120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6e…6fa7backed Yes15c63,112$9,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,466.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+120.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes26c62,523$16,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,482.244829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682b…59d8backed No32c61,606$20,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,600.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a8…ac98backed No57c58,618$33,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,290.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f32…b501backed Yes27c58,078$15,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,766.8550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes4c55,987$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,454.79140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes30c55,245$16,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,383.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes7c55,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed Yes10c53,680$5,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,243.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce84…9e2bbacked Yes13c52,778$6,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,945.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed0…2673backed Yes3c52,663$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.