TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9db7…7e1f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: NFL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-77.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$348.73
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$6,522Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$6,522.12
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$316,946Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$316,946.02
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33,877Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+65%+$22,025.98
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$272.44
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,222Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$1,333.18
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,523Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,523.44
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$53,239Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$53,239
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15,945Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,945.17
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$3,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,220.41
Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,399.99
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$93,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$93,887.32
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.16
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?backed Proposition 50 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$3,706Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$3,705.78
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+733.3%+$4,400
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24.73
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$89.58
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,204Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,204.13
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$4,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$4,351.73
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$27.84
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$6,780Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$6,779.68
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$8,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$7,999.84
Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-78.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$71.3
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$9,785Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,784.91
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95,318Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$95,317.93
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$74,364Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$74,363.67
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$749Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$748.92
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11,409Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,409.16
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,920Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,919.88
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$46,494Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+97.2%+$45,187.72
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13,836Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,836.34
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST80%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$627.3
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,171.55
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,135.55
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,276Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,275.88
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11,898Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,898.44
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,029.95
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$497.75
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$405.81
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15,250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$9,750
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$36,750Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$38,250
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12,209Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+100.2%+$12,235.8
All 3 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+114.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oklahoma vs. Tennesseebacked Oklahoma · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,262Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+147.8%+$4,821.34
Michigan vs. Nebraskabacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,467Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$1,199.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13,210Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6,506.37
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Diddy by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.13
Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$354.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lightning vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$920
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22,271Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$5,577.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$533.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16,383.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PG&E (PCG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$440.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oliveira vs. Gamrotbacked Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12,328Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,328.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$37,500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.