Music · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f006b79130bc1b62197bc6e75182830ce66e00bfd0aeccbd111e0398bbadbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $313,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e79…ecf8backed Yes | 3c | 33,896$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,574$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 2c | 16,014$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…0baabacked Yes | 2c | 13,465$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,863$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 6,973$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…7e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,392$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,045$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 5,348$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 1c | 4,168$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…30a3backed Yes | 2c | 4,009$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…1f07backed Yes | 3c | 3,962$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…b497backed Yes | 3c | 3,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…c0dabacked Yes | 3c | 3,434$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…c799backed Yes | 3c | 3,304$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,962$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,052$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 3c | 1,915$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdd…11ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,853$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 3c | 1,672$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,624$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…09cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,576$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383e…ab30backed Yes | 1c | 1,494$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…a384backed Yes | 2c | 1,298$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5c…b379backed Yes | 2c | 1,224$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…971ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…e186backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bc…d9fabacked Yes | 2c | 918.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 3c | 875$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…f8abbacked Yes | 2c | 781.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…bca2backed Yes | 2c | 541.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…0b48backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…cb34backed Yes | 7c | 434.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9c…2be7backed Yes | 3c | 348.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.