TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x66c1…2c72

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,071
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category AI at 62 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT29129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 291 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.05
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.74
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.3
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$345
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$704Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$346.5
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+320.8%+$762.37
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+1,007.3%+$909.8
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$1,780
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+698.8%+$437.41
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.3
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.07
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+381.9%+$1,447
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$465.59
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$105.6
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$114
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$278.04
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.16
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.48
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$564.56
Showing 25 of 291 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT18725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 187 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.17
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.73
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.78
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$228
Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+72.6%+$67.29
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+169.9%+$242.18
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.47
Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+183.3%+$647.02
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+118.7%+$229.5
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$234.27
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 20-26 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.57
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+795.4%+$106.75
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.37
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+353.3%+$261.51
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.95
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.96
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13.08
ICE forced to unmask by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.64
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$68.93
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$34.89
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.67
Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.59
Showing 25 of 187 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT729.7%7 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.86
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+1,151.9%+$215.43
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.07
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.1
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.62
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$39.44
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$41.65
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$124
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon tweet 270–299 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.18
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 240–269 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.15
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.67
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.5
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.47
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.24
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.2
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.98
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+350.7%+$1,538.64
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT7123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+3,252.3%+$502.17
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.41
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.02
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.34
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.77
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.07
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.11
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.64
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+225.7%+$69.3
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.11
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.99
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.52
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+486.2%+$995.27
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.03
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+77.7%+$191.88
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$778Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+295.9%+$2,302.38
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$79
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+163.9%+$194.27
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,579.98
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.63
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.68
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT6734.3%23 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
AI — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+123.2%+$275.99
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$275
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$244.14
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+606%+$636.29
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$195
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+64.1%+$78.15
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?backed Tesla · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.62
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.92
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+263.1%+$521.01
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+363%+$392
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$305
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$94
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.2
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.86
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+2,528.3%+$302.02
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.69
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$27.9
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT6129.5%18 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$72.9
Megaquake by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.53
Megaquake by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.17
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$132.99
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+568%+$186.76
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,887Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$1,059.22
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$30
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$341.9
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.5
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.62
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+133.3%+$400
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.27
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$51.19
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.49
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$242.42
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.58
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.29
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.78
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.03
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.74
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+100.1%+$342.92
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+106.9%+$155
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT4723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.6
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.84
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$886Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$885.91
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+466.4%+$1,646.96
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.87
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+84.9%+$229.59
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$468.23
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$787.81
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.39
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+453.5%+$1,228.99
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.19
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.24
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$804.99
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+226.1%+$744.64
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4226.2%11 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.18
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,951Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+490.1%+$9,561.15
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.99
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$465
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.3
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,212.84
Will the third-place match be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$145
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$109
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$59.92
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$90
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$138
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+804.8%+$80.85
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$63
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advancebacked Austria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$88
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT4022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$53.97
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+789.5%+$1,331.37
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.07
Ukraine hits Moscow by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$38.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$236.54
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$142.95
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.43
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.6
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+361.8%+$546.09
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$311.23
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$84
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.84
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.66
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.53
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+124.5%+$383.76
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT3713.5%5 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+1,104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.58
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.49
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+657.2%+$325.93
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.2
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.26
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.53
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.99
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+77.6%+$282.78
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$360.39
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$29.27
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19.91
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$59.14
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,249Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,249.11
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$198.15
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$125.56
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+40,620.6%+$8,383.39
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$29.32
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$25.17
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$161.87
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.34
Will the US loose jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$95.03
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT3013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-60.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$511.93
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.02
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+413.5%+$581.18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.6
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?backed US Strikes Iran · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$21.39
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$79.88
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.88
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$65
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.77
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+196.6%+$308.72
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.58
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will no one dissent October Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$196.82
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$860
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.24
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+270.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.37
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.89
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.99
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$465
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.9
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.91
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.52
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$189.99
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$194.77
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$42.32
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+1,535.2%+$2,783.33
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+566.7%+$425
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+3,035.1%+$1,548.97
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2231.8%7 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick14cpaid+183.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+1,841.7%+$474.25
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+1,823.1%+$226.77
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.49
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.09
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.3
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$365
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 40% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$14.29
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+285.3%+$170.3
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$113.94
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+986.6%+$1,967.02
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11.62
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+455.6%+$369
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$11.03
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 8% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.37
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.04
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+53.2%+$314.94
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$305.62
Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.47
All 22 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$141
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$188.14
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+33.3%+$14.74
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+182.9%+$79.4
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$24.52
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.36
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$49.5
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$58.46
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$44.47
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$14
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+35.1%+$26
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$34.38
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.52
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 18 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$23
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+365.1%+$78.5
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$47.2
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$14.1
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+85.2%+$13.8
Will Inter win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+56.3%+$7.2
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+108.3%+$15.6
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+92.3%+$14.4
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$23.88
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$29.21
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$39.97
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$143
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$12.2
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40.85
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$46.14
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$39
All 13 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.38
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.28
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$474.71
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.35
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.44
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.07
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$143
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.19
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+370.6%+$157.5
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+91.5%+$408.62
All 10 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.19
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$219
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.76
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.5
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.16
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.71
All 9 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+127.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$29.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.