Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe2c66574f540a01016bb02d92f94cf27276a0e181558393429ed17d3887f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 8c | 24,502$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.39 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked No | 10c | 13,024$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked No | 0c | 12,361$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…2851backed No | 1c | 8,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 6,895$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.12 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 6,524$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…8a3fbacked No | 16c | 6,336$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 11c | 5,806$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.9 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,099$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 6c | 5,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 6c | 4,121$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.56 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…4bb0backed No | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 3,558$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.39 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 26c | 2,799$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.12 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa86…daccbacked No | 12c | 2,100$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 7c | 2,021$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 1,811$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…bd5fbacked No | 3c | 1,550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 2c | 1,523$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…caafbacked No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 1,495$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 1,486$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked No | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed No | 15c | 1,383$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.35 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 1,335$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 13c | 1,240$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 10c | 1,214$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 8c | 1,111$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 1,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 1,061$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked No | 22c | 1,032$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed No | 20c | 1,001$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 16c | 1,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…9a8cbacked No | 18c | 986.65$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…a0ffbacked No | 10c | 980.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 76c | 899.58$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 12c | 848.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 844.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 8c | 843.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked No | 21c | 835$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed No | 18c | 833.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed No | 20c | 800$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 799.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 749.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…8869backed No | 13c | 747.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed No | 5c | 741.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…b1b9backed No | 14c | 713.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 18c | 700$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 7c | 682.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed No | 17c | 677.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 669.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed No | 9c | 668.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked No | 2c | 656.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 6c | 656.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed No | 19c | 634.34$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…df47backed No | 8c | 634$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 7c | 611.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked No | 9c | 600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 599.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7429…1415backed No | 10c | 570.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 10c | 557.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…ce3ebacked No | 10c | 524.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 10c | 501.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…de54backed No | 10c | 500.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…b214backed No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…56d4backed No | 9c | 499.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…5ff0backed No | 10c | 485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6866…35ddbacked No | 10c | 468.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…126bbacked No | 5c | 435$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2121…5f82backed No | 15c | 410.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…64b6backed No | 7c | 408.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…ee4bbacked No | 21c | 405.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +135%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…0741backed No | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed No | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 10c | 395.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed No | 9c | 388.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 10c | 380.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed No | 18c | 378.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 14c | 354.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…9a13backed No | 14c | 354.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 9c | 337.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 6c | 336.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 309.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…2feebacked No | 25c | 308.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…d318backed No | 17c | 302.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed No | 17c | 302.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed No | 19c | 300.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bd…8976backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…c7edbacked No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…6033backed No | 24c | 299.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 10c | 299.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb519…addfbacked No | 10c | 290.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…dae2backed No | 7c | 267.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…e48ebacked No | 9c | 263.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.