Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27348e1627b26b6a45c9fbb288ce55a80cda1c593a514891e4945d0d24beb928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 56c | 16,013$9,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,973.05 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 9c | 12,805$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.34 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 77c | 12,683$9,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…6435backed No | 34c | 11,900$4,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,070 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 51c | 10,235$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,046.53 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 31c | 8,609$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.14 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…1d42backed No | 44c | 8,020$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 19c | 6,117$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.33 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 9c | 6,002$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.24 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 69c | 5,905$4,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.6 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 46c | 5,718$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.32 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 40c | 5,665$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.46 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed Yes | 48c | 5,559$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed No | 53c | 5,260$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,223$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 59c | 4,300$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 41c | 4,300$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 49c | 3,601$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.55 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…692bbacked No | 52c | 3,528$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5897…3dd0backed Yes | 79c | 3,424$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc2…ce94backed No | 29c | 3,420$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 32c | 3,402$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.9 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked Yes | 56c | 3,129$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…f99cbacked No | 40c | 3,088$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 38c | 3,024$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 57c | 2,851$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.93 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Yes | 77c | 2,829$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.31 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fb…2de9backed Yes | 63c | 2,825$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…c0abbacked Yes | 51c | 2,780$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 2,626$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.16 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 46c | 2,607$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 42c | 2,587$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…6738backed No | 37c | 2,571$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 71c | 2,489$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.27 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes | 71c | 2,351$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.95 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked No | 58c | 2,233$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…ec31backed No | 47c | 2,222$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 78c | 2,200$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 40c | 2,163$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.41 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 19c | 2,010$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.44 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed No | 45c | 1,934$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…8a3fbacked No | 51c | 1,922$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 1,862$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.07 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 25c | 1,806$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.81 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 80c | 1,730$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.34 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 18c | 1,631$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 13c | 1,592$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,539$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…8d0fbacked No | 14c | 1,520$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…03b2backed Yes | 78c | 1,509$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18f…41eabacked No | 45c | 1,472$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbb…0645backed No | 61c | 1,470$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff3…8c08backed Yes | 54c | 1,390$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed No | 22c | 1,362$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.97 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…23a2backed No | 16c | 1,264$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…502ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,223$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 1,221$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 74c | 1,195$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed No | 31c | 1,163$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.44 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed No | 27c | 1,083$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.18 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 54c | 1,081$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.63 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…bd5fbacked No | 18c | 1,021$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…df2bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,007$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…896ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 62c | 1,000$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 989.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked No | 22c | 931.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…f69dbacked No | 47c | 920$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 38c | 899.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…26adbacked No | 8c | 855.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 55c | 835$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.16 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 61c | 821.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.78 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed No | 56c | 818.43$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 18c | 801.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed No | 54c | 796.53$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 795.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 53c | 756.2$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 17c | 742$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 43c | 711$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.68 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 20c | 707.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 699.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed No | 45c | 699.98$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 3c | 680.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eeb…a4d1backed No | 25c | 676.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…f79abacked Yes | 49c | 670.14$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 34c | 644.82$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 633.59$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.06 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…417abacked No | 49c | 613.26$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…4c7cbacked Yes | 80c | 605.95$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed No | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed No | 33c | 599.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…01f0backed Yes | 66c | 599.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 599.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a08…a5aabacked Yes | 63c | 592.33$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 42c | 590.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.18 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.