Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd012b683a6e6d76c1aab0d5592de8e6e729b4441763166bb731861e95468cda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $522,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $610,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3858…bb2cbacked Yes | 47c | 20,373$9,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,550 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 29c | 18,146$5,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,253.14 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed Yes | 9c | 16,661$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…c211backed Yes | 46c | 15,310$7,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,083.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked Yes | 14c | 14,530$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 71c | 14,361$10,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,154.73 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…b085backed Yes | 44c | 14,109$6,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,154.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 18c | 13,124$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…9a38backed Yes | 49c | 10,109$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 63c | 9,713$6,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640.89 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 9,169$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.65 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 62c | 8,354$5,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.53 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 79c | 7,937$6,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 78c | 7,558$5,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.64 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 6,440$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…e6f6backed No | 50c | 5,736$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 40c | 5,645$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.96 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x889f…ad42backed Yes | 39c | 5,422$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,010$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.82 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 4,841$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.91 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 54c | 4,000$2,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 41c | 3,595$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.46 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,446$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed No | 57c | 3,413$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.79 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…db8ebacked No | 59c | 3,353$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 66c | 3,269$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 66c | 3,133$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.95 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 49c | 3,095$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.53 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 71c | 3,025$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Yes | 38c | 3,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…747abacked No | 64c | 2,891$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 71c | 2,830$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.98 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…6bf2backed No | 76c | 2,645$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 73c | 2,576$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.74 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 36c | 2,563$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.55 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 2,469$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.44 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c36…c1efbacked No | 38c | 2,388$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 2,210$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1249…6fd4backed No | 56c | 2,186$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…fd37backed Yes | 48c | 2,183$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…6123backed Yes | 14c | 2,183$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 66c | 2,173$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.57 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed No | 57c | 2,110$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…9211backed No | 58c | 2,017$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…41fbbacked No | 53c | 2,000$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 57c | 1,831$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.93 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…219cbacked No | 66c | 1,825$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 1,810$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…b261backed No | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,795$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.97 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 69c | 1,742$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.76 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 72c | 1,742$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.5 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…ea15backed No | 77c | 1,659$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.77 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,645$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.81 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 78c | 1,578$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.24 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,433$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.39 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20cd…5634backed No | 63c | 1,428$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,365$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…177bbacked No | 70c | 1,362$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.91 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 1,310$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 50c | 1,289$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.97 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…c365backed No | 47c | 1,234$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.65 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…5f3bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 1,185$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…d410backed No | 41c | 1,180$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.42 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…d285backed No | 67c | 1,128$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 72c | 1,095$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.26 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…85a7backed Yes | 11c | 1,053$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…caafbacked Yes | 25c | 1,043$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,007$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.07 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 59c | 1,001$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x546b…0405backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +7.4wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 13c | 996.53$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 40c | 995.18$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…de00backed No | 65c | 987.27$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…3881backed No | 67c | 965.47$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 62c | 905.62$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.62 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe511…55f3backed No | 56c | 897$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.8 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Yes | 30c | 885.65$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 61c | 880.36$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.85 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…502ebacked Yes | 35c | 878.11$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed No | 65c | 837$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.9 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked No | 55c | 821.37$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 58c | 818.84$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.91 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…417abacked Yes | 34c | 817.08$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.52 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…12babacked No | 57c | 800$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 799.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 40c | 793$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.8 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 65c | 771.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.64 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…678fbacked Yes | 43c | 765.87$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 67c | 745.3$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.72 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 740$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.44 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…710dbacked Yes | 15c | 737.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 77c | 727.41$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.