Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa78daab1a58fce540937b5bb9ca914ee6c1139cb148f84bc3d7a37a512032d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 3c | 19,747$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…bb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 14,425$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…c211backed Yes | 10c | 14,064$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…9a38backed Yes | 13c | 11,270$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889f…ad42backed Yes | 19c | 7,439$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…dda3backed Yes | 3c | 6,927$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 5,354$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…83d6backed Yes | 1c | 5,006$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Yes | 10c | 4,990$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 9c | 4,490$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.08 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,471$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 3c | 2,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,262$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…85a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,255$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…b4eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,927$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,654$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,640$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed Yes | 3c | 1,599$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,538$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,473$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…ea5cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,469$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,426$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,398$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…f1e6backed Yes | 6c | 1,384$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 1c | 1,338$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,291$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed Yes | 14c | 1,112$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No | 78c | 1,021$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…588bbacked Yes | 7c | 910.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked Yes | 5c | 725.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 717.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 10c | 700$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 556.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5d…63efbacked Yes | 9c | 555.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 6c | 450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 12c | 439.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 11c | 429.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…678fbacked Yes | 11c | 412.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ebfebacked Yes | 9c | 311.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…fad0backed Yes | 9c | 294.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…7de6backed Yes | 8c | 292$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 10c | 286.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 234.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 9c | 212$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…7aebbacked Yes | 16c | 208.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 206.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…de1dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2193…1427backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 9c | 195.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 189.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…86d5backed Yes | 11c | 183.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…1188backed Yes | 11c | 181.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4a…d57ebacked Yes | 17c | 173.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 9c | 144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…a728backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…e234backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.