Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x792fe6a3854a2737786b2924885c30a7bd526693c86cb035ec17ace8025a31f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $449,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 426 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 8c | 25,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 4c | 24,201$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.09 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…4443backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 36c | 10,500$3,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824.99 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 4c | 10,473$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.14 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed Yes | 31c | 10,058$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,896.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 49c | 10,000$4,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.43 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked Yes | 25c | 8,069$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,069.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 64c | 8,000$5,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,114.99 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…9a38backed Yes | 67c | 7,851$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 42c | 7,508$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.88 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…bb2cbacked Yes | 65c | 7,377$4,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…c211backed Yes | 69c | 7,130$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 61c | 6,445$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 38c | 5,700$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.34 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 72c | 5,374$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850.24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 58c | 5,356$3,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.82 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e9…0384backed Yes | 55c | 5,291$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…b085backed Yes | 62c | 5,202$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…e6f6backed No | 47c | 5,080$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 34c | 5,054$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.78 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 62c | 4,999$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 59c | 4,899$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.94 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…4deebacked Yes | 53c | 4,893$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 28c | 4,801$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.76 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1b…9980backed Yes | 53c | 4,420$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 4,368$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…c0abbacked Yes | 15c | 4,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…8501backed Yes | 40c | 3,901$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 58c | 3,868$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…1d42backed No | 60c | 3,732$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed No | 75c | 3,715$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…80e6backed No | 65c | 3,710$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 37c | 3,544$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.8 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 23c | 3,467$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.26 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 13c | 3,453$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.84 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fb…2de9backed Yes | 56c | 3,338$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 16c | 3,204$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.46 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 18c | 3,127$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.27 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 74c | 3,046$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 52c | 2,952$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.88 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 2c | 2,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x889f…ad42backed Yes | 32c | 2,387$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 43c | 2,363$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.08 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…9943backed No | 47c | 2,180$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 2,179$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,177$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 41c | 2,165$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.1 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…85a7backed Yes | 25c | 2,049$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 67c | 2,011$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…7b2fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,996$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…d319backed No | 80c | 1,900$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…5330backed No | 77c | 1,885$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed82…0954backed No | 3c | 1,811$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 20c | 1,800$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked No | 57c | 1,794$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 26c | 1,708$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.28 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 37c | 1,639$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 78c | 1,625$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 47c | 1,577$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.78 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…5f3bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,573$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…ec31backed No | 77c | 1,560$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 1,543$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.84 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,528$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.81 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…678fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,468$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 61c | 1,381$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.64 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,240$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…8cfcbacked No | 4c | 1,218$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 38c | 1,200$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e9…ff48backed Yes | 79c | 1,185$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 75c | 1,107$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.57 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 1,088$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.97 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…26adbacked No | 19c | 1,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 57c | 1,054$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 15c | 1,044$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.18 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked Yes | 43c | 1,038$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.43 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff3…8c08backed Yes | 17c | 1,031$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…3d65backed Yes | 42c | 1,030$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 58c | 1,029$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…57c3backed Yes | 20c | 1,006$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,002$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.11 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…fdbdbacked No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…ba8cbacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes | 39c | 969.64$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eeb…a4d1backed No | 74c | 941.39$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 936.56$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.68 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…defabacked Yes | 19c | 900$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked No | 29c | 886.17$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4f…a442backed No | 18c | 843$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 67c | 800.92$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.85 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed No | 63c | 800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed No | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…ce13backed Yes | 47c | 799.99$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…d989backed No | 72c | 799.87$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 49c | 790.24$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.4 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked No | 56c | 774.44$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.69 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…219cbacked No | 50c | 762.21$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.