TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa2ff…772c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 51 out of 100; worst CS2 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4030%12 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,031Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$3,264.39
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.1
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.99
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+163.3%+$747.7
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$330
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$433.69
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+185.7%+$260
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+38.1%+$120.87
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$298.35
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$437.87
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$104.01
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+64.4%+$161.65
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,247Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+110.1%+$1,372.8
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$259.82
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$456.8
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$225.2
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$693Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$693.38
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$701.94
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+299.8%+$592
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,920Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+66.7%+$1,280
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+127.3%+$622.16
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$926
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$204.23
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$141
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3)backed NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$49.6
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3)backed Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+38.9%+$38.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$65.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$139.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$185.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.