TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,372,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,277,291

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,372,873 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 745 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf97e…0034backed Yes52c108,970$56,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,624.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No38c107,232$41,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,252.333636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9540…90e9backed No0c50,424$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f0c…749bbacked Yes53c42,360$22,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,793.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Yes48c34,461$16,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,062.934050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6b1…216bbacked Yes73c33,849$24,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,196.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9d…1687backed Yes55c28,486$15,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,810.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No39c25,220$9,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,919.227240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91a8…b42ebacked No12c24,687$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.85633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed Yes55c22,203$12,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,058.377270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x9c42…deb7backed No6c22,054$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.182429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No54c21,676$11,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,737.5714141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked No41c18,679$7,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,737.521369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick39cpaid+73.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No35c18,000$6,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2855541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No43c17,693$7,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,608.198327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No42c17,000$7,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,139.4412840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x59c6…8332backed No51c16,700$8,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,598.881844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked No34c15,853$5,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,329.572825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94e1…97efbacked No56c15,174$8,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,485.63944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes57c14,619$8,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,344.129352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No47c14,000$6,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,639.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No54c13,390$7,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,275.314751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe650…1450backed No50c13,360$6,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,68080%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa87c…332ebacked Yes61c12,063$7,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,731.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e75…2dd9backed No52c12,056$6,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,211.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c11,761$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.082061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5df2backed No46c11,754$5,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,455.851338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes55c11,531$6,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,149.963857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca72…30cdbacked No34c11,500$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,94050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No8c11,421$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9405339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6eab…1c81backed No44c10,344$4,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,551.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes59c9,700$5,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,942.313262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes64c9,482$6,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.492560%15 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff2…2be4backed No20c8,632$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.11170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aff…7035backed No41c8,517$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ad…8186backed No48c8,359$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes54c8,110$4,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.323775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked No28c7,980$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.875832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No47c7,949$3,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,761.156927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes55c7,641$4,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,417.7915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa91a…c6c9backed Yes47c7,537$3,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,980.11566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+35.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed No30c6,989$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.013330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No54c6,710$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,611.244254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4e…3135backed No6c6,671$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7336…1f7bbacked Yes70c6,545$4,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No25c6,470$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.055448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2dc…3f6abacked No0c5,802$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcc…fbc2backed Yes64c5,755$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc1c…3439backed Yes73c5,741$4,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.712540%10 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7910…29e0backed No55c5,678$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.711225%3 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes43c5,600$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1893119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ff7…c869backed No55c5,599$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,069.631850%9 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes42c5,555$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.4214335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No70c5,469$3,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,827.957545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes36c5,421$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.253221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece8…13fdbacked Yes43c5,245$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…f20dbacked No37c5,200$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40e6…b3fdbacked Yes58c5,123$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.643259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe88b…f99fbacked No48c5,001$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,378.365345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes54c4,976$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.0210045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,899$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.867663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fdf…9d95backed No50c4,874$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.542030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No57c4,658$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.735240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b36…6ad2backed No53c4,540$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.53100%0 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6d81…4777backed No56c4,454$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac81…c181backed Yes62c4,331$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.821872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+79.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xce2a…662ebacked Yes48c4,266$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No46c4,189$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.521926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes58c4,084$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.166634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04d…eecfbacked No47c3,541$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.78520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes43c3,500$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00510320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4966…81debacked No9c3,500$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.372119%4 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No42c3,343$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.97047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No57c3,306$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.342339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…e058backed No34c3,200$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0902123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked Yes62c3,083$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.231553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked No49c3,050$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.361952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde51…b01ebacked Yes59c3,029$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.11346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c0…17b5backed Yes74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No39c3,000$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.345352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x976c…c3cabacked No2c2,963$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6d…76f5backed Yes55c2,958$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.232941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+263.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b9…58a7backed Yes61c2,850$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.18875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed No38c2,800$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0734037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No37c2,769$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.063834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf77c…73c4backed No39c2,760$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.241225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f58…7f40backed No15c2,704$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa095…d047backed No56c2,694$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes52c2,693$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.981338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No29c2,677$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.72020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes35c2,635$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.1213023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed Yes41c2,600$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No17c2,589$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.16728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed No32c2,570$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb81d…1272backed Yes60c2,567$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c2,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No39c2,500$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9671540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72e9…da40backed No4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64b…e382backed Yes58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed No49c2,500$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2203234.4%11 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.