TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$767,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$879,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb376…ea30backed Yes1c21,808$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c9,970$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.72061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b8d…105abacked Yes3c8,953$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b6…d759backed Yes2c8,712$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No69c6,332$4,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.2411833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c6,182$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.233283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a09…e317backed No77c5,406$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.972684.6%22 W · 4 L+9.8wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c5,348$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.077663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd61f…3105backed Yes0c5,070$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…c2adbacked Yes0c5,070$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b8…a6d4backed Yes0c5,070$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…176bbacked Yes0c5,065$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d7…c88fbacked Yes3c4,620$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes0c3,433$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,343$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.182442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf2…1502backed Yes0c3,275$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No74c3,148$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.1717859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c3,027$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.392541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce5b…ee17backed Yes7c2,737$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.232814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-78.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No64c2,723$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99023841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes2c2,523$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.445111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd43e…b2c0backed No75c2,400$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5914100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+70.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe384…dc90backed Yes16c2,201$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b5…d0cfbacked Yes25c2,199$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d0…5585backed Yes33c2,066$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…5670backed Yes33c1,921$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…ecc9backed Yes32c1,873$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b10…0b49backed Yes33c1,873$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf488…5d18backed Yes30c1,867$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5577…a7f8backed Yes32c1,865$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x833b…6a6abacked Yes33c1,862$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes3c1,829$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86b2…6bcebacked Yes33c1,829$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c4…bae0backed Yes33c1,819$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326e…43c3backed Yes34c1,812$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e70…4dccbacked Yes33c1,809$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f9b…2727backed Yes33c1,779$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6388…f05fbacked Yes32c1,754$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb03…a6e6backed Yes33c1,752$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a22…d031backed Yes23c1,750$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e06…2145backed Yes32c1,743$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd00b…6c00backed Yes32c1,742$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b32…7bf4backed Yes31c1,740$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…f2d7backed Yes27c1,739$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa29d…0edfbacked Yes34c1,735$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82db…b7d0backed Yes32c1,730$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…b0f8backed Yes23c1,729$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6809…7a3abacked Yes32c1,722$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…769abacked Yes33c1,713$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…daeabacked Yes33c1,706$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a62…39cdbacked Yes33c1,703$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd36f…2843backed Yes34c1,701$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd857…8493backed Yes33c1,693$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e42backed Yes31c1,690$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953c…bd37backed Yes33c1,684$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6a…fa95backed Yes33c1,671$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f5…6511backed Yes32c1,661$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa21b…e2b1backed Yes32c1,655$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6674…f3ebbacked Yes33c1,646$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8d…5694backed Yes33c1,636$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd00b…c6d0backed Yes31c1,631$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa6…95cfbacked Yes32c1,607$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…3339backed Yes33c1,604$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3e…3004backed Yes33c1,601$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4f…267ebacked Yes2c1,599$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c5d…de98backed Yes32c1,587$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb491…56b5backed Yes33c1,583$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5202…3102backed Yes33c1,577$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9953…e429backed Yes33c1,576$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f96…86dfbacked Yes32c1,549$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fb…78b1backed Yes28c1,517$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…6955backed Yes32c1,510$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6b…a175backed Yes31c1,477$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No69c1,457$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.941163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6766…3e33backed Yes30c1,391$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e6…d64bbacked Yes33c1,341$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294a…24bebacked Yes31c1,337$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ed…079abacked Yes1c1,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03d…9165backed Yes29c1,291$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,280$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.013495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9fa…2e2ebacked Yes32c1,256$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006d…8b81backed Yes32c1,230$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe5…0f58backed Yes7c1,214$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d1…2a43backed Yes31c1,213$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x968d…e36cbacked Yes33c1,190$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e6…6205backed Yes20c1,187$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…a3b7backed Yes30c1,185$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7f…253fbacked Yes32c1,173$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…2674backed Yes17c1,171$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96e…c6dcbacked Yes26c1,149$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6577…fa94backed Yes20c1,148$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d3…085abacked Yes30c1,124$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd5…26fdbacked No80c1,102$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fd…6378backed No67c1,095$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb361…79e4backed Yes30c1,092$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5630…a6abbacked No67c1,091$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6b…40bbbacked No66c1,091$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…1b1cbacked Yes32c1,087$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f6…1a32backed No66c1,086$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.