TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$600,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$561,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 432 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf97e…0034backed Yes25c36,414$9,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,310.791369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1023…e2b4backed No0c28,551$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No56c27,875$15,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,747.877545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9540…90e9backed No0c27,792$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed No2c22,708$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1094…6aecbacked Yes77c12,738$9,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c3…a32fbacked Yes45c11,510$5,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,369.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa04d…eecfbacked No75c10,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,500520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc953…1ae5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No16c9,501$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.272227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51d7…cae4backed Yes70c8,411$5,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9262…bcb8backed Yes74c6,878$5,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.91957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+142%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked No2c6,625$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1197514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes69c6,178$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.610045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No33c6,062$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.67234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No46c5,515$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.554254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ddd…bea6backed Yes61c5,317$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…1272backed Yes70c5,175$3,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No75c5,152$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.447759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34b3…507fbacked No1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfa…e24bbacked Yes22c4,530$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,519.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c0…17b5backed Yes47c4,523$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ad…1ffbbacked No26c4,338$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed No37c4,286$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff7…c869backed No75c4,201$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,150.421850%9 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No18c4,149$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.5911421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9fb…a841backed No27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No55c3,798$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.155352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x129f…7b9ebacked No30c3,706$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,648$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.147663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c4e…ce80backed Yes25c3,498$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+307%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed No27c3,476$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.492552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes21c3,362$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.373221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes38c3,139$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+74.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d78…fb66backed No75c3,114$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff2…2be4backed No14c3,112$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f420backed No25c3,099$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.8650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+978.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No58c3,080$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.5816247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No18c3,024$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.389920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes38c3,000$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8759352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No75c3,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2509142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed No13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7910…29e0backed No75c2,972$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.761225%3 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No34c2,841$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.7525422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No41c2,812$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.6415362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe7e7…8cbebacked No53c2,811$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed No28c2,770$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.8339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde51…b01ebacked Yes28c2,715$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No18c2,644$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4805453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes38c2,596$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.488532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a0…2c5abacked No74c2,425$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.972347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed No11c2,400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2add…32e3backed Yes42c2,353$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed No12c2,343$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f53…0414backed No20c2,328$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f9…efa4backed No29c2,328$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c13…a136backed Yes77c2,270$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c64…36b4backed No30c2,250$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1340…e38bbacked No47c2,240$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes41c2,240$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.041338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c87…7a9abacked Yes27c2,203$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.141546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0395…7a29backed No61c2,200$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.92560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked No28c2,200$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.991968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked Yes72c2,169$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.811952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…55a4backed No44c2,150$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes61c2,100$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.4617859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba3c…2e4ebacked No30c2,019$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.922356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2676…b459backed Yes25c2,016$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+305.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No79c2,001$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.1814548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003650%18 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0603262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No1c1,981$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.262920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes41c1,912$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.32618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf952…456abacked No74c1,870$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.79955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e5…fee1backed Yes54c1,868$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d1…734cbacked Yes74c1,836$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed No11c1,784$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa84d…5df2backed No63c1,758$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.761338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…f20dbacked No73c1,712$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.18100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa91a…c6c9backed Yes47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9011566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+35.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e75…2dd9backed No32c1,680$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4e39backed No39c1,618$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9965…b6cbbacked No25c1,612$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.783333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…b721backed Yes26c1,600$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcc…fbc2backed Yes65c1,548$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked No71c1,547$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.42825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed No28c1,504$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.545846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed No64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9602429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c42…deb7backed No32c1,500$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.052429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b33…bf9dbacked No21c1,487$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…2efbbacked Yes34c1,476$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.671030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed No3c1,436$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59c6…8332backed No74c1,427$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.641844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686c…9d91backed No67c1,393$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.31560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bc…583bbacked Yes38c1,392$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.251030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked No28c1,366$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.533775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes32c1,330$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.8311124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…7464backed No76c1,327$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.921020%2 W · 8 L-4.7wins-0.47per pick67cpaid-73.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No9c1,300$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.551541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9cf…c8b9backed No23c1,295$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.