TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,348,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,417,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,348,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,087 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb623…4203backed Yes54c34,693$18,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,898.54933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5d…7a01backed No43c33,098$14,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,772.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No48c24,788$11,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,835.647545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes42c24,420$10,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,306.64938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No67c22,910$15,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,527.974520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa04d…eecfbacked No71c20,657$14,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,958.09520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes17c20,262$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.5410045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe5…0f58backed Yes39c20,257$7,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,858.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No73c16,941$12,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,581.184254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9540…90e9backed Yes25c15,498$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.98100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes39c14,523$5,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,597.078532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes17c14,486$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.573221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf093…7628backed Yes64c12,014$7,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,738.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fdf…9d95backed No73c11,796$8,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.92030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes24c10,710$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.34618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa84d…5df2backed No74c10,500$7,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.221338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes24c10,210$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.292520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfa…e24bbacked Yes12c10,018$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes41c9,510$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,920.159352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd81…006dbacked No78c9,476$7,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes19c9,218$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7975453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes19c9,082$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75710320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No66c9,000$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0601145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece8…13fdbacked Yes43c8,950$3,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,853.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No43c8,727$3,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,957.757240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94e1…97efbacked No62c8,278$5,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.29944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff7…c869backed No66c7,167$4,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.311850%9 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes28c7,129$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes55c7,000$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,884.9915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked No78c6,786$5,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.571952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8d…e824backed Yes30c6,668$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f8…0cf6backed No78c6,614$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.16944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa87c…332ebacked Yes30c6,563$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84e…ad08backed Yes59c6,524$3,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,818.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes50c6,497$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.654731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes36c6,467$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.7911124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7910…29e0backed No75c6,381$4,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.311225%3 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb86…1dc5backed Yes50c6,371$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked No43c6,340$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.072825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No74c6,291$4,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.172227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked No55c6,270$3,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,825.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick39cpaid+73.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee4b…43dcbacked No56c5,781$3,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aff…7035backed No69c5,596$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.461225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x493d…0348backed No64c5,503$3,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No34c5,498$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.14751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36e7…46e6backed No60c5,486$3,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.44163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes18c5,399$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.544122%9 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2add…32e3backed Yes30c5,352$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes23c5,336$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.7711421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes41c5,291$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.378154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ff2…2be4backed Yes16c5,238$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.34170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x652c…5784backed Yes33c5,229$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes28c5,227$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.071338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb751…8d99backed Yes53c5,156$2,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,708.021323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc200…2be9backed Yes33c4,987$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.8390%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c4,940$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.3519336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f6…21bebacked Yes32c4,930$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa794…42adbacked No75c4,779$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.731866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+74.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes20c4,600$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9285614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed Yes11c4,539$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes23c4,488$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.2514141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x527f…0ae5backed Yes63c4,300$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.91060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes10c4,121$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.513422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.045448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Yes17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0c…749bbacked Yes14c4,000$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No38c3,987$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.023636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a5…59a4backed Yes26c3,840$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.791030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes28c3,758$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05513023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2a…662ebacked Yes33c3,666$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes45c3,591$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.872055%11 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes18c3,545$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.062030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes32c3,493$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.785058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked Yes37c3,477$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No60c3,415$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.293834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbdc…2a9bbacked Yes23c3,400$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.992035%7 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d22…c9d1backed Yes30c3,250$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8746…902dbacked Yes43c3,225$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3c…abddbacked Yes31c3,220$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f420backed Yes21c3,216$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.41650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+978.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fb…f6f5backed No79c3,139$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.26560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked No50c3,100$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.332245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x225e…eaf8backed Yes33c3,028$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked Yes31c3,000$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.824531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No56c3,000$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.675352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b45…bc22backed No50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb45…915ebacked Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6805541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No39c3,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.985657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked No65c2,999$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.771968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x252d…8a71backed Yes14c2,981$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.331315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…ac10backed No59c2,948$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x131b…2d3cbacked Yes38c2,931$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…217ebacked Yes25c2,925$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.583339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb376…ea30backed Yes32c2,922$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ba…9a84backed Yes30c2,902$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c87…7a9abacked Yes14c2,896$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.341546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Yes29c2,868$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.843823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5b9…f10cbacked No68c2,800$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.121631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d12…7954backed Yes67c2,790$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.