TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,927,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,496,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,927,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,072 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes34c158,425$54,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,125.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b5d…7a01backed No58c96,863$55,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,082.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba10…cf10backed No43c92,600$39,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,782366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No54c92,600$50,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,295.344751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b97…e4f1backed Yes5c85,550$4,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,652.612548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No51c67,829$34,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,4993636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…8a71backed Yes5c64,167$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.471315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No65c55,000$35,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,3201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes10c52,318$5,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,448.864731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6156…979fbacked Yes45c45,866$20,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,798.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb376…ea30backed Yes11c43,124$4,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,914.1370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7996…b669backed Yes32c43,015$13,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,897.99520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No36c40,528$14,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,996.637240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1094…6aecbacked Yes13c39,430$5,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,179.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7227…019fbacked Yes46c35,684$16,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,238.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac9d…1687backed Yes8c34,215$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4b…77d9backed Yes28c33,331$9,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,388.581612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-80.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…fef6backed Yes39c32,677$12,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,717.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9963…1674backed No74c31,986$23,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,447.673100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf97c…bef3backed Yes57c31,600$18,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,01210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…920bbacked Yes57c30,900$17,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,61310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef96…c917backed Yes57c30,100$17,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,15710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe5…0f58backed Yes32c28,620$9,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,078.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes41c27,589$11,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,411.613748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…ec64backed Yes45c26,814$12,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,119.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes6c26,544$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked No11c25,635$2,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,901.984425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbe0…266fbacked Yes67c25,103$16,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,911.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes35c24,569$8,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5234938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes1c24,329$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.810045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No61c24,193$14,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,493.942429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7322…3acebacked Yes46c23,567$10,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,851.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes65c23,509$15,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,219.599352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No69c23,336$15,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,345.3415941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9262…bcb8backed No45c21,683$9,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,023.721957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+142%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed No71c21,454$15,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,255.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No17c21,080$3,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,434.8212840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc5dc…22ecbacked Yes48c20,248$9,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,667.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes9c20,161$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa66c…f291backed Yes36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes1c20,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes1c19,302$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0813422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes14c19,039$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.861030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+599.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb079…deabbacked Yes2c18,813$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa40c…d3d4backed Yes1c18,697$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c18,370$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.852061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No36c17,903$6,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,424.6314141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b67…c647backed Yes24c17,784$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,235.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+60.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3c…ebdebacked Yes53c17,311$9,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,112.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed Yes79c16,007$12,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,611.023033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfe…9c5bbacked Yes48c15,989$7,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,604.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb45…915ebacked Yes7c15,955$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.291625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No80c15,784$12,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.754254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes0c15,682$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.872030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce40…5b23backed Yes49c15,625$7,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,613.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c1…1777backed Yes62c15,592$9,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,598.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0e…35f8backed Yes9c15,485$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b2c…5341backed No18c14,902$2,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,219.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf4…997abacked No21c14,248$2,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,273.241520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9540…90e9backed Yes1c14,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x594c…3399backed Yes64c13,929$8,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,974.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1dc…ff6cbacked No37c13,103$4,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.831145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4cb…ecb7backed No80c12,967$10,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b45…bc22backed No60c12,768$7,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1131030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa553…880fbacked Yes54c12,548$6,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,831.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed Yes55c12,307$6,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,786.67061.4%43 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c95…30cbbacked No69c12,255$8,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,814.864942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes15c11,941$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.34911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-82.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed No51c11,887$6,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,881.983756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes66c11,711$7,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,751.053221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c11,687$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf40…c4d7backed Yes6c11,676$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No74c11,440$8,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,943.0420551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa505…91d1backed Yes2c11,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Yes7c10,972$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.078327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed No21c10,955$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,642.963933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce60…fdf0backed No38c10,896$4,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,706.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No13c10,614$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,238.711338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Yes48c10,604$5,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,083.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Yes67c10,316$6,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,883.281844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ec…5203backed Yes22c10,150$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes12c10,034$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.521338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a1c…970abacked Yes56c10,000$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6401643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700.291428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…f390backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes44c10,000$4,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,404.075135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No27c9,969$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,268.75339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No20c9,897$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,882.779747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ce…d70ebacked No75c9,675$7,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.22785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick76cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c12…6986backed No47c9,647$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,153.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x546b…0405backed No33c9,606$3,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,471.261883.3%15 W · 3 L+7.4wins+0.41per pick42cpaid+144.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No76c9,276$7,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.9916247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed No77c9,272$7,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.981080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf8…3f84backed Yes57c9,098$5,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,166.430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x159c…ad37backed No13c8,927$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,800.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+692.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes32c8,910$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.64618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x23e2…eb2ebacked Yes42c8,884$3,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,732.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No75c8,853$6,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.58744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes18c8,681$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.571850%9 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc200…2be9backed Yes3c8,000$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9790%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.