TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$626,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$595,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $626,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb376…ea30backed Yes2c27,831$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c63…3b12backed Yes7c20,543$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes0c9,999$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa753…9c74backed Yes0c8,581$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes0c8,548$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c7,974$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.795111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b4…fa86backed Yes0c7,467$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b9b…b8e3backed Yes0c7,385$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b0…4650backed Yes0c7,385$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…5abebacked Yes0c7,385$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c6,687$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.283283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…765ebacked Yes26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf837…09adbacked Yes18c5,963$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a0…742dbacked Yes2c5,623$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x594c…3399backed Yes11c5,329$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1859…b19fbacked No74c4,910$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes10c4,893$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.585135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc3…cd8ebacked Yes22c4,836$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c4,350$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.751712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb1ef…cb7bbacked Yes1c4,106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f2…e36dbacked Yes14c4,100$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.031154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9203…8c7ebacked Yes0c3,987$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62c…ab7abacked Yes4c3,974$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c3,686$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.952541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f0…9873backed Yes0c3,479$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c3,450$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.742442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a09…e317backed No55c3,210$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.672684.6%22 W · 4 L+9.8wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xe551…0a67backed No56c3,210$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.5613100%13 W · 0 L+7.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+164.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes1c2,537$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.272317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,489$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.59766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes2c2,426$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3311124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes9c2,319$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.02618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7471…fd07backed Yes1c2,123$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b9…b8acbacked Yes12c2,018$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x850f…220cbacked No79c2,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5b…ee17backed Yes19c1,991$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.012814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-78.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes4c1,972$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x312f…f0b9backed No73c1,900$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf4c…d5dbbacked Yes4c1,749$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-53.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda9d…226cbacked Yes15c1,521$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.862317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes14c1,506$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.771010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-84.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd4…d25bbacked Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5d…b293backed Yes4c1,484$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes9c1,456$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.033221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…8dc5backed Yes8c1,438$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa229…0b73backed Yes20c1,412$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0841…1ab5backed Yes11c1,409$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No76c1,403$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.6211833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e3…ba96backed Yes15c1,351$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.78166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-89.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a3c…9088backed Yes6c1,339$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dd…c0cdbacked Yes13c1,335$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.081118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8361…0247backed Yes8c1,322$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdb…0b12backed Yes14c1,287$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x886a…17b6backed Yes7c1,258$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6742…8d7cbacked Yes17c1,212$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes13c1,143$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.879228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2a…662ebacked Yes9c1,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,058$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b6…d759backed Yes4c1,042$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes4c1,024$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,019$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.17510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9b…5dc2backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802020%4 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c999.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a97…1f4bbacked Yes6c971.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.341216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc67a…9b98backed Yes7c970.92$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c934.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.242917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes3c917$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.812010%2 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c914.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.523495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed Yes13c898.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.183033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c885.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.177663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0096…de43backed Yes4c859.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.911127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0cd…45abbacked Yes9c831.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3798…c20ebacked Yes8c830.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes22c827.15$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.945225%13 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c823.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…e1e5backed Yes4c765.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf624…7be8backed Yes4c730$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No72c718.86$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.383450%17 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x388a…44bfbacked Yes22c695.83$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.982020%4 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9a9…a606backed Yes4c672.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No55c671.36$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.119645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes7c600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Yes45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes14c600$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.52638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes9c599.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.971234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbb…c895backed Yes26c592.71$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ed…079abacked Yes7c590$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.83441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes12c580$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No57c540$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2307240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x546b…0405backed No53c537.52$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.011883.3%15 W · 3 L+7.4wins+0.41per pick42cpaid+144.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes11c509.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.251450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes10c499.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes13c499.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes3c499.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7516740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb15…00cdbacked Yes27c485.19$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-75.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c484.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.561343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes7c463.45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.