TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,278,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,445,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,278,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9564…3a32backed No17c359,864$59,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,922.583636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9540…90e9backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No9c42,870$3,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,867.135339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b39…6192backed Yes75c40,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc953…1ae5backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eab…1c81backed No24c18,905$4,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,492.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…f99fbacked No16c14,766$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.495345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No14c14,642$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.53618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c13,098$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.262061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d81…4777backed No23c10,954$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda8…2fd6backed Yes80c8,090$6,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes79c7,531$5,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.023775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No7c7,157$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.055137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf9…c81bbacked No9c6,928$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f76…c244backed Yes79c6,350$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.013100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5695…1247backed No0c5,926$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…6336backed No15c5,901$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374c…9fdcbacked No15c5,897$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…d67fbacked No15c5,896$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2b…7b31backed No14c5,832$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes78c5,559$4,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.982030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f9…efa4backed No3c5,400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…fbc2backed Yes76c5,261$4,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.684100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No21c5,010$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.127047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No20c4,433$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.82339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4966…81debacked No5c4,337$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.672119%4 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91a8…b42ebacked No1c4,262$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…efbebacked No18c4,100$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7232429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No1c4,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa705…8998backed No21c4,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c3,749$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.183283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6eb…dcf1backed Yes79c3,600$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes79c3,561$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.691250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed No22c3,117$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fd…3ecfbacked No23c3,062$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6951040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff2…2be4backed No16c3,028$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.07170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bc…e4eabacked No10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No14c2,928$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9212840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc452…1cd2backed Yes76c2,827$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed No6c2,769$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.984528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x425f…ebd6backed No10c2,762$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed Yes75c2,700$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No15c2,674$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.41338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9652…b21dbacked No15c2,658$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked No20c2,640$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.612334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b97…e4f1backed No6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Yes80c2,364$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.773650%18 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked No23c2,170$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.11952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No24c2,091$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.5514548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c2,088$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.58766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bdd…c9a9backed No16c2,042$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.094736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3072…7601backed No9c2,000$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.02633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0067…3d12backed No15c1,972$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No16c1,944$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.547240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No7c1,853$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6923841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No13c1,849$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.884632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x964c…cd05backed No13c1,829$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.92128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No5c1,805$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.265352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No15c1,800$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27015539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No22c1,700$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3747759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6767…5facbacked No8c1,689$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c1,658$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.372377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No21c1,633$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35014437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No22c1,620$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.169920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5534…eb60backed Yes79c1,604$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.064100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb871…e20ebacked No1c1,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No1c1,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No23c1,556$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.383834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No9c1,550$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.355127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes78c1,546$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ae…1dbabacked Yes79c1,531$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.882055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…3e5dbacked No17c1,524$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36010320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aff…7035backed No23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No7c1,491$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6610143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed No12c1,484$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.824050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No6c1,442$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7711124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3c…37d7backed No15c1,400$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-75.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x485d…47edbacked No12c1,363$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.33116.1%5 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-70.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No12c1,306$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa135…68b8backed Yes77c1,304$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.953033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed No11c1,267$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7710340.8%42 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3109…5f14backed No22c1,261$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.781338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes76c1,207$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.642638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No10c1,200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1169228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No21c1,163$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.219645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked No17c1,159$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.325219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3837…03fdbacked No9c1,156$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf76d…197bbacked Yes77c1,100$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12f2…2ba5backed No9c1,090$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No12c1,087$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.187126.8%19 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed No24c1,087$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73f…6523backed No23c1,055$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No25c1,033$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.298017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4b…7e8ebacked Yes79c1,031$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.16785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3731…fb76backed Yes77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…6207backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.