Token Launches · resolved market
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72953c956e8f1b4f51d4fe3414dd4cb2fdda1ad7f763fa5440c6b81cb2dca3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $599,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $678,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…c88fbacked Yes | 1c | 19,685$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…ea30backed Yes | 0c | 16,081$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 1c | 15,483$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 2c | 15,110$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.06 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,195$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,610$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…6330backed Yes | 1c | 8,166$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…a752backed Yes | 1c | 6,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 6,503$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…1884backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,246$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…d7a9backed Yes | 0c | 5,150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,810$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…0247backed Yes | 1c | 4,736$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3174…a8f0backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,540$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…25f6backed Yes | 1c | 3,167$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,534$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,430$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,285$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 2,222$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…d088backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,933$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,772$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,751$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…d4fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,475$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bd…b3fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1d59backed Yes | 1c | 1,060$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,057$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…2efbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0420…3a51backed Yes | 4c | 931.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…e126backed Yes | 6c | 860$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…8f8fbacked Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…dc2abacked Yes | 1c | 747.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…a172backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…fca5backed Yes | 6c | 659.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f965backed Yes | 6c | 652.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…e9cfbacked Yes | 3c | 614$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 598.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 468.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…424cbacked Yes | 2c | 458.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…fc76backed Yes | 6c | 195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?this page
- EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.