TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,732,423
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,766,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,732,423 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 997 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb376…ea30backed Yes1c209,122$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…8a71backed Yes1c106,775$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9540…90e9backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95ba…99dabacked Yes25c66,319$16,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,579.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf40…c4d7backed Yes1c51,961$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b97…e4f1backed Yes1c35,964$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.622548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes15c33,249$4,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,834.745135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes13c29,438$3,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,853616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes9c28,170$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,592.248532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0c…749bbacked Yes2c25,964$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ff…893cbacked Yes0c24,800$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba1…3d8abacked No75c23,176$17,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca3…2be0backed No75c21,259$15,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,314.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae6a…5e59backed Yes39c21,225$8,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,265.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f6…fdf7backed No75c20,554$15,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,138.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c20,304$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.351338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc200…2be9backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d12…7954backed Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc93…e66cbacked Yes2c19,949$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfa…e24bbacked Yes1c19,305$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c6…91dbbacked Yes35c17,530$6,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,068.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c63…3b12backed Yes15c16,516$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a0…742dbacked Yes2c16,424$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes6c16,404$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.5410320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4e…3135backed Yes0c15,748$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…81b9backed Yes5c15,326$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a4…3fb9backed Yes1c15,122$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Yes10c14,918$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa8…2e16backed Yes8c13,598$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3731…95f8backed Yes2c12,594$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0298…6606backed No78c12,490$9,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,732.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No70c12,285$8,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,713.974751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c12,169$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.022061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No72c11,922$8,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,353.019352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed No65c11,143$7,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.763756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c76…d2f5backed No79c10,605$8,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6630…0016backed Yes12c10,462$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a6…91edbacked No75c10,439$7,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,629.12580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf572…7458backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick22cpaid-35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Yes26c9,439$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Yes1c9,426$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb95…1758backed Yes28c9,350$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c9,316$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.512377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c9,233$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.61424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe5…0f58backed Yes2c9,204$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba3c…2e4ebacked No63c8,877$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,326.812356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes19c8,845$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.24618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed Yes4c8,826$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb751…8d99backed Yes24c7,857$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.911323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No72c7,495$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.441428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No77c7,195$5,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.642846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c6,907$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.673283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4b…77d9backed Yes1c6,751$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.511612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-80.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No57c6,663$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,835.5512840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7996…b669backed Yes5c6,495$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.95520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No56c6,481$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.9917859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes1c6,175$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4811225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No74c6,096$4,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.474520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ef…cb7bbacked Yes2c6,085$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb157…958abacked Yes2c5,882$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9763…a292backed No71c5,603$3,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.581471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x147e…a3f4backed No76c5,581$4,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc771…b18fbacked No57c5,292$3,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.161844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c5,205$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.97766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c5,152$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.922010%2 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed No55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2503036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b3…507fbacked Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed No66c4,974$3,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.243933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No76c4,967$3,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.9520551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes1c4,921$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.081330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No49c4,856$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.437240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c0…2210backed Yes1c4,816$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes2c4,783$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No64c4,449$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.799747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c4,403$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.7635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cf8…3f84backed Yes24c4,217$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c4,206$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.532442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes1c4,084$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,082$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.417663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb45…915ebacked Yes0c4,021$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c3,948$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+146.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b2c…5341backed Yes25c3,921$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No74c3,917$2,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.824254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb18…b519backed Yes37c3,800$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes28c3,711$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.138854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30de…fa1fbacked Yes35c3,623$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…7a48backed Yes28c3,601$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…0884backed No75c3,521$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.15100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee97…974bbacked Yes2c3,513$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b67…c647backed Yes1c3,459$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+60.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked No70c3,442$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.741154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c3,427$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.872541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde51…b01ebacked Yes7c3,400$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed No55c3,271$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.563033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2c…a146backed No72c3,220$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed No75c3,200$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f65…1679backed No57c3,181$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.931776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.