TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4cc2…9271

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT4731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$805Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$328.86
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$32.97
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$660
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.34
Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$275
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$6,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,200
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13,688Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,688.34
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27,099.88
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,999.64
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,800Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$1,200
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,439.03
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,239Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,238.65
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$5,449Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,448.86
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18,304Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+52.6%+$9,631.5
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$750
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$2,062.74
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$900
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$350
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11,082.16
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42,025Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+54.4%+$22,851.9
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$9,356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$9,356.3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,850Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$4,850
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,072Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$3,071.72
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43,506Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$16,893.05
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+191.1%+$3,822.51
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$333.73
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+426.3%+$4,263.16
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$566.8
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$5,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,000
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$300
All 9 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+122.2%+$275
Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+75.4%+$226.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+69.5%+$590.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Gukesh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+40.8%+$167.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$63.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.