Token Launches · resolved market
Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fcc1310cb74a23ef911d765c40c4ddbf5ca57b1fb68d041f0b0ba4dad148b27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6450…ab14backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 35c | 36,064$12,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,468.23 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…0d2ebacked No | 5c | 13,022$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 3c | 12,192$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.74 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 10,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…9626backed Yes | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 5c | 6,022$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 66c | 5,555$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 32c | 5,500$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed No | 6c | 5,000$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 2c | 4,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…ef01backed Yes | 53c | 4,005$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed No | 24c | 3,717$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.6 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +10.5wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 1c | 3,072$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…9e7abacked No | 3c | 3,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 11c | 2,958$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.68 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…5dedbacked No | 7c | 2,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…a9c0backed Yes | 55c | 2,040$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…1fb3backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 49c | 1,949$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.51 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 2c | 1,393$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 13c | 1,300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 60c | 1,292$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.79 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…1d25backed Yes | 54c | 1,151$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,035$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…0e5abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 956.79$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.92 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 76c | 638$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 54c | 601.52$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 545$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 39c | 425.6$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…f463backed No | 6c | 370$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 3c | 323.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 5c | 319$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…288bbacked No | 4c | 308.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c88…4c64backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 65c | 299.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 69c | 289$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 46c | 265$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 55c | 225.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 64c | 202.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…ddb8backed Yes | 55c | 200.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…2066backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…f2f0backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 50c | 167.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…c1f9backed No | 10c | 148.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…0c9abacked Yes | 49c | 133.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…96b2backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 18c | 120.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 44c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed Yes | 63c | 79.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…4451backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed Yes | 64c | 53.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…43b5backed No | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed Yes | 63c | 38.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 57c | 31.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…674fbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 39c | 27.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.