Token Launches · resolved market
Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb1ce68d68dfda31c9f49b9b839afd9ff89feaeb3a8e7b90eed5fda189d57159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373d…f85cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,127$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,011$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked Yes | 18c | 1,134$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 6c | 1,034$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…c434backed Yes | 8c | 805$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 15c | 709.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…bd0dbacked Yes | 8c | 702.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 4c | 559.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…a26ebacked No | 79c | 558.1$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c1…5280backed Yes | 14c | 456.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 24c | 418.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 3c | 407.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 352.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 14c | 262.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 211.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…9383backed Yes | 10c | 204.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65dd…4664backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46d…d125backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Yes | 14c | 138.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…cba6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 12c | 93.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.