Token Launches · resolved market
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703252a9536f2c895113c8499d969811877bf798ef3a19f65c7594292f549e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8fb…5a96backed Yes | 37c | 19,186$7,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,071.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 45c | 9,740$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,351.65 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 16c | 7,931$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…a26ebacked No | 73c | 6,027$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 16c | 5,890$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…ef01backed No | 73c | 4,452$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked No | 79c | 3,532$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 37c | 3,300$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.3 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 3,176$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.02 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 62c | 2,771$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.71 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…b44fbacked No | 71c | 2,697$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 19c | 2,595$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.65 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 79c | 2,500$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.09 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…b19abacked No | 70c | 2,222$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…1d81backed No | 76c | 1,988$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 72c | 1,861$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.86 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…d122backed Yes | 22c | 1,853$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 35c | 1,677$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 52c | 1,618$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.32 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Yes | 24c | 1,600$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fb0bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,574$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked No | 72c | 1,542$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.82 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…ab14backed No | 59c | 1,493$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 71c | 1,467$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…eb68backed No | 75c | 1,419$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 27c | 1,341$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.65 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…cba6backed Yes | 51c | 1,216$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.59 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 51c | 1,178$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…80e6backed Yes | 60c | 1,159$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 23c | 1,145$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 78c | 1,060$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 38c | 1,026$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 41c | 976.25$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.25 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed Yes | 75c | 963.48$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.83 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…aa97backed Yes | 17c | 887.82$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…f586backed Yes | 25c | 813.51$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.97 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 24c | 810.09$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 13c | 799.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…2066backed No | 52c | 791.21$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 68c | 780.5$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.27 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed No | 66c | 752.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.21 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +10.5wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 72c | 696.12$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.61 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…b1cfbacked Yes | 6c | 653.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 15c | 651$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed Yes | 35c | 640.57$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 35c | 634.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.58 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 25c | 633$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 605.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 601.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 40c | 538.06$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 74c | 516.6$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…438bbacked Yes | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…c1ecbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…2787backed Yes | 27c | 497.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 24c | 492.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes | 24c | 465.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 28c | 462.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…88d9backed Yes | 23c | 440.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 73c | 401.87$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 40c | 375.66$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…ddb8backed Yes | 31c | 351.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 64c | 350$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 22c | 348$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 64c | 347.77$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 31c | 302.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 23c | 302$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 35c | 292$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 27c | 289.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a7…ba3fbacked Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…7670backed No | 74c | 277.53$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 262.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 27c | 254.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…d819backed Yes | 27c | 251.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…497fbacked Yes | 24c | 249.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…fe9ebacked Yes | 20c | 248.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x694a…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 243.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 241.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…c2cbbacked Yes | 31c | 234.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed Yes | 31c | 225.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c6…24cfbacked No | 74c | 225$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 212.46$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 35c | 208.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3403…f041backed No | 74c | 204$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…1523backed Yes | 32c | 202.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 50c | 201.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…dd2bbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…4e5abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.