Token Launches · resolved market
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a8a627e78c29401c200f7aa28e5316bae0823c317069e0a166c4ac4fa0d63e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $704,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $652,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $704,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 17c | 64,866$10,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,781.95 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked No | 3c | 41,510$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 4c | 36,986$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed No | 2c | 26,612$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.41 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…ef01backed No | 14c | 16,053$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 5c | 14,111$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 7c | 13,929$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.51 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed No | 10c | 11,000$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 10,717$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…ac09backed No | 8c | 10,582$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…b44fbacked No | 11c | 10,514$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…a801backed No | 10c | 10,237$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked No | 10c | 9,729$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…1774backed No | 10c | 9,426$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…38c6backed No | 3c | 9,133$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…eb68backed No | 9c | 8,726$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed No | 3c | 7,928$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…c1ecbacked Yes | 75c | 7,609$5,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 46c | 6,742$3,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.28 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed No | 0c | 6,692$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked No | 4c | 6,503$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 9c | 6,392$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.82 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked No | 3c | 5,712$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…f413backed No | 8c | 5,170$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed No | 0c | 5,071$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…1523backed Yes | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked No | 6c | 5,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 4,949$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 19c | 4,757$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…790cbacked No | 9c | 4,504$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…b377backed No | 7c | 4,486$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,755$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed No | 8c | 3,510$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…ab14backed No | 5c | 3,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 15c | 3,329$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…9626backed Yes | 39c | 3,327$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 78c | 3,300$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 3c | 3,125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…920dbacked No | 1c | 3,108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 11c | 3,007$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…ee3ebacked No | 0c | 2,954$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 14c | 2,784$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed No | 11c | 2,726$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 1c | 2,720$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 3c | 2,707$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 67c | 2,648$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…be2abacked No | 0c | 2,619$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…438bbacked No | 6c | 2,522$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 65c | 2,512$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 2,496$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed No | 9c | 2,309$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 10c | 2,279$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 1c | 2,086$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked Yes | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…9cabbacked No | 9c | 1,836$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,806$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 29c | 1,750$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.17 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed No | 20c | 1,732$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.34 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…c9e7backed No | 14c | 1,662$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 11c | 1,600$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…9437backed No | 1c | 1,582$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…5f2abacked No | 6c | 1,533$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec58…9079backed No | 2c | 1,521$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 14c | 1,460$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 2c | 1,418$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked No | 2c | 1,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…b066backed No | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…288bbacked No | 11c | 1,386$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 1,385$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…4f65backed No | 9c | 1,304$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked No | 8c | 1,301$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 6c | 1,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.28 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 22c | 1,237$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.17 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…0e5abacked No | 2c | 1,220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 2c | 1,156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 48c | 1,110$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.1 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 9c | 1,039$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a066backed No | 10c | 1,030$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…8a95backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…2787backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…8d9cbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.68per pick | 16cpaid | +1,246.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 10c | 954.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…a26ebacked No | 5c | 825.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed No | 62c | 811.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +10.5wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed No | 9c | 789.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 14c | 755.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed No | 11c | 752.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed Yes | 77c | 650.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 78c | 642.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…b613backed Yes | 63c | 565.77$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed Yes | 71c | 527.06$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…b19abacked No | 5c | 500.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…2066backed No | 23c | 500.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…ce3ebacked No | 5c | 492.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.