TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3387…c3f7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.6
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$29.96
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$6.21
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$12.02
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.33
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$10.24
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$37.87
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.44
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.35
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$849Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$849.05
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+88.8%+$202.64
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,403.74
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$616.68
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+220.8%+$61.29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$489.45
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.45
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$888Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+210.3%+$1,867.73
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+337.5%+$443.57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+367.6%+$261.01
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.18
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+239%+$119.49
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+67.3%+$38.84
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$32.15
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$18.08
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$42.53
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+267.4%+$168.65
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+121%+$333.12
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$50
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53%+$161.84
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.33
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.82
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.76
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$630.49
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.94
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$29.22
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$16.04
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+182.2%+$106.47
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.08
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.33
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+169.8%+$204.9
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$22.06
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.21
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.74
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$35.48
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.13
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.86
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.24
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.21
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.45
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+530%+$155.71
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$882Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$442.17
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$59.71
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.09
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.27
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$50.02
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.