Token Launches · resolved market
Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9766059566241d26c6cf3a65f0eb0e2601999e2c68bd613224cd103656500a62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 703$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 69c | 604.34$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.56 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 36c | 562.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 21c | 505$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…2066backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c1…5280backed Yes | 78c | 354.43$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 60c | 279.35$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 30c | 247.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 80c | 206.19$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…327ebacked Yes | 74c | 206.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…ddb8backed Yes | 76c | 130.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked No | 20c | 101.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.