Token Launches · resolved market
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122263e06feeaaed2386cfefcc15681775a0df0508f181c5db2d5a833ce4825b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8fb…5a96backed Yes | 63c | 56,934$35,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,273.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 25c | 9,862$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.45 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 25c | 9,530$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.11 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 31c | 6,426$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 5c | 5,626$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 13c | 5,030$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.71 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 21c | 4,702$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fb0bbacked Yes | 68c | 4,621$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed No | 40c | 4,009$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.66 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…38c6backed No | 27c | 3,811$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…ef01backed No | 54c | 3,713$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 39c | 3,610$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.74 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…b44fbacked No | 57c | 3,509$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…f333backed No | 19c | 3,228$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed No | 41c | 3,107$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 41c | 3,000$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 2c | 2,826$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 3c | 2,500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 1c | 2,383$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 37c | 2,283$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.49 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 8c | 2,160$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 32c | 2,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 25c | 1,997$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.28 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…d122backed Yes | 38c | 1,898$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 12c | 1,566$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 49c | 1,541$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 37c | 1,540$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.52 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 65c | 1,537$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…a26ebacked No | 13c | 1,300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…0e5abacked No | 10c | 1,300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 45c | 1,292$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 8c | 1,246$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 1,200$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.25 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…a9c0backed No | 34c | 1,168$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 14c | 1,122$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 15c | 1,111$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 38c | 1,101$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.39 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 45c | 1,079$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.21 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…d339backed No | 26c | 1,030$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 39c | 1,025$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 31c | 1,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…8edfbacked No | 14c | 904.37$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 55c | 901.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 7c | 868.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1508backed No | 6c | 847.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…b16abacked No | 19c | 846$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed No | 15c | 830.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 58c | 828.8$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.56 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 63c | 785$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.7 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…b377backed No | 11c | 699.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 36c | 693.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed No | 6c | 675$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed No | 15c | 626.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…b1cfbacked No | 8c | 594.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 47c | 580.83$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.78 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3403…f041backed No | 53c | 551.93$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 70c | 530.68$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 10c | 530.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 50c | 495$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.4 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…8a0dbacked No | 27c | 485.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 4c | 468.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 31c | 450$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 70c | 413.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 38c | 399.86$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…f413backed No | 65c | 390.2$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…dd2bbacked No | 38c | 389.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 37c | 374.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 374.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…cba6backed No | 16c | 369.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…ae28backed No | 30c | 369.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 58c | 354.66$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked No | 22c | 348.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 5c | 336.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked No | 6c | 328.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 47c | 322$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 27c | 305.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 16c | 302.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…fe9ebacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…c9e7backed No | 64c | 297.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694a…ffb9backed Yes | 40c | 294.53$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 26c | 269$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…eba8backed No | 6c | 268.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 38c | 267.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…55b9backed Yes | 39c | 245.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…88d9backed Yes | 39c | 241.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…0088backed No | 8c | 240.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 20cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 52c | 222.14$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 11c | 207.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…438bbacked Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…04a0backed No | 21c | 194.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…0db9backed No | 30c | 190.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed No | 13c | 177$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.