Wallet 0xd8d5…8935
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xd8d5289c35124b5353f5a10a28b8cc29aec38935
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 467
- What they are worth now
- $200,908
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0
bought for $198,866
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 467, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?backed No | 4,716shares | 69c | 93c | $4,404 |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?backed Yes | 6,742shares | 70c | 62c | $4,147 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?backed Yes | 3,581shares | 74c | 95c | $3,403 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?backed Yes | 5,000shares | 66c | 66c | $3,275 |
| Market 0x479d…3813backed outcome 0 | 3,397shares | 96c | 96c | $3,256 |
| Market 0x9f94…9ddfbacked outcome 1 | 3,510shares | 88c | 92c | $3,236 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?backed No | 4,444shares | 65c | 73c | $3,222 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?backed No | 3,156shares | 84c | 95c | $2,998 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?backed No | 3,468shares | 82c | 84c | $2,896 |
| Christopher Luxon out by September 30?backed No | 3,000shares | 93c | 94c | $2,805 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 543
- Categories scored
- 25
- Categories below 50
- 11
Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).
Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Middle East — the 107 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
World Politics — the 101 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Us Midterms — the 55 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI — the 49 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commodities — the 34 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NHL — the 34 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CS2 — the 32 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine — the 21 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Movies — the 19 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Macro Indicators — the 13 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Music — the 10 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IPO — the 7 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA — the 3 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UFC — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Lol — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Weather — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.