TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BIGof NRG, BIG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,217,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,403,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,217,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47a8…52f9backed NRG31c191,707$58,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,835.0510142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked BIG70c134,302$94,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,290.5542440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed BIG69c108,864$75,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,747.9325255.6%140 W · 112 L+18.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed NRG30c83,819$25,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,145.841838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked BIG71c56,229$40,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,184.838358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5291…d4b6backed NRG29c51,076$14,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,686.861963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed BIG58c45,274$26,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,015.1820153.7%108 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed NRG29c42,802$12,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,617.6223839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked BIG71c40,000$28,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,599.9514050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BIG54c36,000$19,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,650.2850054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked NRG30c35,893$10,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,768.0430726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked BIG58c35,000$20,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7004639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed NRG31c32,260$10,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.5119455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed NRG33c31,434$10,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,356.9433343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BIG71c30,000$21,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,70075758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked BIG58c30,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,60075452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed BIG70c30,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.9917951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed NRG28c27,775$7,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,888.0515947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed NRG37c23,405$8,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,659.961,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked BIG58c22,087$12,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,296.945742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed BIG66c21,332$14,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,247.5941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b4c…e850backed BIG1c20,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,800333.3%1 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick1cpaid+3,233.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb78b…2bb3backed BIG72c20,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.962564%16 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed BIG71c19,796$14,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,740.7310359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e01…ac8ebacked NRG42c16,250$6,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,893.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked NRG43c15,000$6,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,428.919248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked NRG28c15,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2007646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked NRG25c14,665$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,611.21,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed BIG71c14,042$9,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,072.2519055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed BIG66c12,892$8,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.6275350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked NRG30c11,110$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33347047.4%223 W · 247 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…369bbacked BIG72c11,105$7,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.521266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked NRG22c10,589$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.736440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed NRG18c10,517$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.769335.5%33 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked BIG52c10,256$5,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,934.51,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed NRG11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked BIG60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.9912956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked NRG30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9216245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BIG80c9,877$7,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.3364552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked NRG11c9,134$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.9613043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed BIG69c9,028$6,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.1222843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed NRG46c8,951$4,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,162.071,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed NRG25c8,888$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.1811434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…0b1bbacked BIG69c8,177$5,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.7211100%11 W · 0 L+5.1wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+97.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed BIG71c8,006$5,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.8122253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked BIG70c8,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9816920.1%34 W · 135 L-16.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x314c…975fbacked BIG78c7,962$6,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.685971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked NRG41c7,784$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20327658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed NRG16c6,968$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.115347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BIG69c6,500$4,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01523848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked BIG50c6,206$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.061,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked NRG19c6,170$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.397941.8%33 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked NRG14c6,072$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.529127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked NRG66c6,050$4,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.071,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed BIG73c6,023$4,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.1212353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed BIG69c6,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8609551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed NRG29c6,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.9978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked BIG71c6,000$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.987055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked NRG37c5,500$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0509454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked BIG68c5,395$3,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.394652.2%24 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdae…39ebbacked NRG35c5,331$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8592842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed BIG59c5,329$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.8545646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked NRG30c5,287$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56532542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed BIG53c5,269$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.5516732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked NRG42c5,184$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.812,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5257…f324backed BIG62c5,154$3,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.561844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed BIG69c5,048$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.6248350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BIG39c5,022$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.2359839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed NRG29c5,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46023354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed BIG56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2004748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked NRG40c4,893$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.9721655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BIG56c4,869$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.192,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked BIG61c4,596$2,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.8422449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked BIG43c4,500$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.0969624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed BIG57c4,393$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.8820448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked NRG32c4,372$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.0464852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG70c4,194$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.622,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f5d…de70backed BIG72c4,138$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.717166.2%47 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BIG69c4,104$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.35,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NRG49c4,097$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.111,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8e…ce7dbacked BIG61c4,048$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.663672.2%26 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked BIG63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.983053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed NRG22c4,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.981,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked NRG19c3,932$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.3313760.6%83 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1727…680ebacked BIG69c3,730$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked NRG47c3,708$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.861,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BIG69c3,583$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.8766551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BIG57c3,561$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.592,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed BIG58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed BIG52c3,398$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.610361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed NRG35c3,395$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.2855043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98fc…6e31backed BIG72c3,383$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.11936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed NRG30c3,375$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.712253.3%65 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked NRG12c3,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.967447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed NRG30c3,306$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.911843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed NRG30c3,262$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.710333%34 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed NRG55c3,123$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.2488746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed BIG71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87084658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed NRG36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08024935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed NRG42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2603863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.