TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1727…680e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NFL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 56 out of 100; worst La Liga at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT4261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,742Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,742.12
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$5,016Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+203%+$10,183.64
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+25%+$14
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$19.81
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.2
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$63
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$27.27
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$40.5
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.48
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48.97
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.68
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$31
Will Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.12
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$49.36
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.2
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$34.25
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$65
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.64
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$315
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.99
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$3.64
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$223.99
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.37
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$12.16
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$27.97
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked G2 Ares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.95
Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs ENJOY - Map 1 Winnerbacked ENJOY · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$215
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffsbacked 1WIN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$329.45
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,757Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$512.3
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,574Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$1,156.45
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$51.6
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed Sinners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.54
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$278.64
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffsbacked Tricked · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,001Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$852.84
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Playoffsbacked ex-KRÜ Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.04
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffsbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.71
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$6,495Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,494.67
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffsbacked Ground Zero · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$147.32
All 13 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,420Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+162.5%+$2,307.41
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.87
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$230.01
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seasonbacked Onion Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$513.01
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,334Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$687.42
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,028.47
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Joblife · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$415.11
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$499.55
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+54.6%+$107.17
LoL: SK Gaming vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$686Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$224.55
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$609Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.7%+$442.81
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.26
Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$131
Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$150.02
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.01
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.03
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.15
All 8 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+367.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+334.8%+$83.93
Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+400%+$80.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,369Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$875.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.