World Politics · resolved market
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341d6a969d9243889772ba5c8889db5fad54fc1b9cd8fd14f264742e6e97973b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 36c | 4,418$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,843.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 2c | 3,643$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…6845backed Yes | 75c | 2,208$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1678…b3c9backed No | 2c | 1,646$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 1,278$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…680ebacked No | 70c | 667.84$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 18c | 640.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 6c | 626.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…0d6bbacked Yes | 37c | 542.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 498.05$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 5c | 475.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…53a1backed No | 73c | 461.72$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 449.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.93 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 433$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 22c | 417.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…dcc2backed Yes | 35c | 417.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 67c | 414.64$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 298.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 295.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…4b4abacked Yes | 34c | 292.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…5bf8backed Yes | 35c | 283.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 6c | 265.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 201.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 63c | 179.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…72afbacked No | 68c | 176.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2f…78e6backed Yes | 59c | 170.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 161.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 155.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…526bbacked No | 70c | 135.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 129$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c5…df1cbacked Yes | 40c | 123.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 110.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b08…dd9bbacked Yes | 51c | 106.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 23c | 97.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…99dfbacked Yes | 34c | 95.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 62c | 93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…955bbacked Yes | 33c | 90.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 20c | 89.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa76…fb1ebacked No | 70c | 88.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 21c | 78.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…49f8backed Yes | 70c | 78.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 78.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5361…86a3backed Yes | 44c | 67.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…b664backed Yes | 42c | 61.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…e0c6backed Yes | 33c | 60.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 73c | 52.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 21c | 52.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 70c | 45.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 71c | 41.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…2c2abacked Yes | 50c | 39.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 62c | 36.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…71eebacked Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 27.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…1f50backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a88…e6f7backed Yes | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 54c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…59e6backed Yes | 80c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…48e4backed No | 69c | 16.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?this page
- Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Mike Cubbard win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Sheila Garrity win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Thomas Welby win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.