World Politics · resolved market
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338e693bdb81d0cb315284ac319a051eb9d7fd8f58ca94580369093828162c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 50c | 5,097$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.57 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 55c | 1,904$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.78 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 52c | 1,743$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 32c | 1,263$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.54 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1678…b3c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,211$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3206…6914backed Yes | 5c | 1,067$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…139dbacked Yes | 56c | 967.37$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 51c | 856.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.52 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…9e1dbacked Yes | 16c | 634.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…5917backed Yes | 51c | 549.81$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 60c | 537.41$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.26 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 6c | 502$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…f1febacked Yes | 2c | 500.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 497.21$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 31c | 480.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 4c | 472.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 449.01$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b2…a6edbacked Yes | 48c | 444.16$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…4d41backed Yes | 24c | 431.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…9e0abacked Yes | 23c | 423.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…8c59backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217b…aef6backed Yes | 64c | 347.77$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 340.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 50c | 331.68$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 311.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 46c | 294.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…3022backed Yes | 37c | 294.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Yes | 26c | 282$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 57c | 277.87$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…6eb8backed Yes | 5c | 267.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8450…e775backed Yes | 21c | 251.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 249.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…43b4backed No | 41c | 244.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…224dbacked Yes | 22c | 222.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 222.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 218$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 59c | 214.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 64c | 207.52$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…6cd5backed Yes | 15c | 190.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…a7aebacked Yes | 27c | 182.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b08…dd9bbacked Yes | 24c | 174.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…6244backed Yes | 61c | 171.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 63c | 170.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 153.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe609…d76ebacked Yes | 7c | 146.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 139.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…ef89backed Yes | 73c | 135.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 129$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…5bf8backed Yes | 54c | 121.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c5…df1cbacked Yes | 48c | 103.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…e59ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 95.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 32c | 87.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +8.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +105%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…387cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…834bbacked Yes | 26c | 81.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05c…ea2cbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 25c | 77.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 45c | 76.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 53c | 71.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 66.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 61.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 60.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c2…a34fbacked No | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…883abacked Yes | 37c | 57.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…b664backed Yes | 44c | 49.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 45.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 34.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…700bbacked Yes | 55c | 29.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…c80bbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…5206backed Yes | 50c | 20.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?this page
- Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Mike Cubbard win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?Yes won
- Will Sheila Garrity win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
- Will Thomas Welby win the 2026 Galway West by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.