TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5566…7c29

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
709
Categories scored
32
Categories below 50
21

Best Category: Music, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Music at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT28456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 284 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.29
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$16.78
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$10.44
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.96
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.86
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.87
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$20.71
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.82
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$3.92
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+102.7%+$50.16
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.55
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$19.35
Will Typhoon Dolphin not make Japan landfall?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.25
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.68
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.5
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.81
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.58
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+97%+$60.07
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.98
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$10.31
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$3.95
Showing 25 of 284 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT10052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$12.88
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5.25
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.99
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.36
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$4.68
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.92
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$3.71
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.33
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$8.62
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.18
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$19.42
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.68
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$36.66
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+130.9%+$24.38
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.92
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.49
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+94.1%+$48
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.94
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$15.22
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.23
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.48
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT5345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.82
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$23.4
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.47
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.49
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$15.29
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$12.09
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$25.5
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$13.68
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+78%+$20.6
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$16.9
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.62
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.58
Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.51
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.49
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$138.59
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.69
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.24
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.76
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$26.2
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$21.09
Will Pasquale Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.41
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+46%+$6.3
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.21
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT5255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$11.38
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+130.2%+$20.36
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.95
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$8.88
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$25.62
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+174.1%+$47.64
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$18.86
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.62
Will Johnny Garrett be the TN-06 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.58
Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+29%+$29.91
Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.23
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$26.65
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+40%+$8.85
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.96
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$48.93
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.67
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$9.8
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$13.41
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.56
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$26.88
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.42
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$12.88
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$13.1
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$31.57
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$23.66
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.83
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.74
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.99
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+134.8%+$15.5
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.65
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$7.71
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$6.06
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$54.14
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.39
Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.4
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+120.8%+$24.82
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$167.67
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+90%+$43.58
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+116.1%+$38.46
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$12.52
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33%+$22.82
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$5.89
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$20.24
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$13.06
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.14
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.1
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+88.9%+$207.45
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+30%+$6.7
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.07
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.37
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$57.99
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.16
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$22.05
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.46
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.95
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+126%+$20.63
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+80.9%+$87.64
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$7.83
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.38
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$13.02
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.43
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+62%+$222.28
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+27%+$9.57
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+60%+$15
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.7
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.98
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.4
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.46
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$11.37
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+453.2%+$373.74
Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.21
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+40.6%+$42.48
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.09
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.98
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$36.15
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$5.4
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.44
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$28.63
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$9.78
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.29
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.54
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$8.4
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$5.69
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.16
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$36.43
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.44
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
All 24 picks, newest first.
Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Music — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.98
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+413%+$69.92
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$14.52
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+102.5%+$11.69
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$18.6
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.24
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.82
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$117.87
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+45%+$15.65
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+151.3%+$30.1
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$172.97
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$13.1
Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$6.04
Will Finland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$4.1
Will Australia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+87.8%+$18.7
All 19 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.1% and 2.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.69
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+174.8%+$62.68
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$7.56
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$48.15
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+106.3%+$110.78
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+82.8%+$18.57
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.99
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$33.66
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.3
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+60.7%+$61.65
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.1
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$24.21
All 13 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.7
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+213.6%+$177.16
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.76
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$13.12
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.08
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+120%+$28.36
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.42
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$39.36
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$5.44
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+46.6%+$15.9
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+50%+$211.81
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+71.6%+$299.63
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.35
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+111.9%+$24.82
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.89
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$82.17
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$50.3
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.1
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+276.8%+$79.34
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.83
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$41.38
All 11 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 9z Team Win the XSE Pro Leaguebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.42
Will PARIVISION Win the XSE Pro Leaguebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$6
Will BetBoom Team Win the XSE Pro Leaguebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.4
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.66
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$12.6
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+109.6%+$73.74
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$16.2
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.7
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.39
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pumas UNAM win Liga MX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$18.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 Euroleague?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$24.5
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$7.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$4.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.