World Politics · resolved market
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac770f782a67038b7ceda0371f6754449092843d8b4f6339422bc1daca4d6fa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc443…2a03backed No | 26c | 1,119$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 72c | 843.65$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 69c | 833.5$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.77 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Yes | 76c | 661.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Yes | 79c | 459.82$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 312$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 285.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 285$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 225$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 21c | 202.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 24c | 197.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 77c | 158.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 24c | 151$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 21c | 120.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 76c | 110.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 76c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 89.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 70c | 57.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…561fbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?this page
- Will Luigi Petrone win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.