TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x736f…deaa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+304.7%+$96.54
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.34
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $8.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.86
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$22.72
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$13.12
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$16.65
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.19
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$25.88
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.22
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.81
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+312.3%+$219.92
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.44
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.24
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.7
Will Luigi Petrone win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$40.59
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.69
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+281.5%+$87.42
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.68
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.6
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.63
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.23
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.29
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$35.49
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.45
Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$5.79
Will Innio's market cap be between $23B and $26B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$747Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$746.54
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.36
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,141.38
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$32.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick44cpaid-67.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+99.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+100.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+229.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+229.6%+$612.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$480.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$204.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$175.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$580.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.